NCAA Tournament: Xavier vs. NC State

One of the most talented players to ever come through Xavier will get his chance in the Dance (USA Today Sports Images)

So Xavier gets the play-in game.  I was hoping it wouldn’t happen, I thought they were more likely to be just above it, but nevertheless, it’s a berth in the NCAA Tournament.  Also, Xavier was apparently second-to-last in the S-curve.  They will be up against the NC State Wolfpack, the very last at-large team to receive a ticket to the Dance, and a surprise pick, I might add.  The next round would be against 5-seeded SLU, who has an awesome defense and a bad offense but has been dropping fast lately.  A potential Round of 32 matchup would be Louisville.  That’s not fun, even if they built their Kenpom profile in large part off of cupcakes.

The Kenpom #66 team receiving a bid is one of the big head-scratchers on Selection Sunday next to #50 BYU receiving a 10 seed after a season-ending injury to star guard Kyle Collingsworth and #2 Louisville receiving a 4 seed.  It makes more sense when you realize that this Selection Committee didn’t make much use of Kenpom and Sagarin when making their picks (cleaving pretty closely to RPI) after two straight seasons of giving a lot of respect to these metrics when Mike Bobinski was vice-chair and chair.  This Committee also gave a lot of credit for scheduling tough in the non-conference slate (first thing Wellman said about SMU’s exclusion was that they did the exact opposite) and they also gave a lot of credit for scheduling road games.  I assumed crappy non-conference schedules and a lack of road games would hurt some teams:  SMU receiving an NIT bid, Iowa having to go to the play-in game, Louisville receiving a lower seed (but not a 4!).  I didn’t think they would reward teams so much in seeding for scheduling tough and going on the road more, which they clearly did with BYU and some A10 teams.  The Selection Committee was rather inconsistent in application, though, with Kansas State (OOC SOS 147 and zero OOC road games) receiving a 9 seed, for example.

That’s enough of that, though.  I’m a little limited on time, and I wanted to put together some things for tonight’s game.  I don’t think NC State was the most deserving pick, but that doesn’t mean they are awful.  They are actually a pretty good team, albeit inconsistent, much like Xavier.  Xavier should be favored in this game, but it could definitely be a tough one, and it all starts with:

TJ Warren

Warren was awarded ACC Player of the Year and was quite deserving of the award.  Sidenote:  Jay Bilas wined about him receiving this award over Marcus Paige or Jabari Parker because Warren had led an NIT team.  Now that it’s a tournament team, though, apparently NC State should easily handle both Xavier and then SLU in the next round.  Thanks, Bilas, for continuing to be a jackass.  Back to Warren, he is a prolific scorer as a power wing (6’8″, 233 pounds), excelling in the mid-range and at the rim while being a rather poor perimeter shooter (27.7%) but capable of some decent shooting nights from deep, which hopefully doesn’t include tonight.  The Wolfpack lean on him heavily, as his usage rate of 33.6% ranks 8th in the country and his shot rate of 37.1% ranks 4th.  But, he’s not a volume shooter.  He’s actually rather efficient, with an offensive rating of 114.6 and an effective field goal percentage of 55.0%, and he’s good at not turning the ball over either (12.3%).  While playing against ACC competition, Warren also has a 17-game streak of scoring 20 points or more, which started after Virginia held him to 4 points.  UVA employs the packline like Xavier, but they are much better at it, as it has carried them to a 1 seed in the tournament.

Xavier won’t be able to outright stop Warren, just like they couldn’t lockdown Doug McDermott.  They can only hope to make it harder on him to score, while trying to stop his teammates from making substantial contributions.  Or maybe they can just get him into foul trouble, as he has had ten games with at least 4 fouls spread out across the entire season.  Another thing that Warren is really good at crashing the glass, grabbing 10.9% of his team’s misses (which are probably his own a lot of the time).  He’s not alone in that department:

Controlling the Glass

NC State is not dominating on the offensive glass but they are definitely good, grabbing 34.8% of their own misses, good for 64th in the country.  Along with Warren, 6’8″ Lennard Freeman (10.9%) and 7’1 Jordan Vandenberg (9.4%) also make contributions.  Luckily for Xavier, this is something they have the personnel to counteract.  The Musketeers rank 54th in defensive rebounding, holding opponents to 28.8%.  Yes, there’s a question of whether Matt Stainbrook, second best in the Big East in rebounds, will be fully healthy, but that hurts Xavier more elsewhere than here.  Stainbrook has a defensive rebounding rate of 23.9%, but James Farr is actually better at 24.7% and Jalen Reynolds grabs 19.0% of opponents’ misses.  Isaiah Philmore (14.4%) and Erik Stenger (14.9%) are weaker in this department, but overall Xavier does have the personnel to generally hold NC State to one shot.  Justin Martin on the wing also grabs 17.0% of opponents’ misses, which is key, as he will often be guarding Warren.

On the other end, Xavier has a definite advantage.  Other than Freeman (17.8%) and freshman reserve 6’9″ Kyle Washington (17.7%), NC State simply does not box out, which is just one part of their overall lack of defensive discipline.  Only 13 teams in all of Division I allow opponents to grab more of their misses than the Wolfpack (36.3%).  That’s a higher rate than Xavier’s 86th average (34.1%), which is a decent mark in itself.  Yes, Stainbrook hauls in an impressive 11.9% of Xavier’s misses, but this rate actually puts him at 3rd on the squad, behind Reynolds (15.7%) and Farr (12.9%) and ahead of Philmore (10.0%).  Philmore has also been grabbing offensive boards at a higher rate than Stainbrook after an awful first third of the season (10 in 11 games), as he has grabbed 54 in 22 games since then.  So, the still recovering center, who might only be able to get limited minutes, is only the 4th best big in a category where Xavier can really exploit NC State.

Keep an eye on the rebounding rates tonight.  Xavier will probably give up a few more offensive boards than they’d like, but they should be able to dominate on the offensive glass.  If they aren’t, that could spell trouble for the Musketeers.

Three-point Shooting

NC State has only one shooter worth mentioning, 6’5″ Ralston Turner, who makes threes at a 36.7% average.  That’s a good mark, but he gets there in a streaky fashion.  If he’s on, he’s killing you.  If he’s off, he’s killing NC State, though he’ll at least still stretch the defense out.  A key to the game will be stopping him, because the Wolfpack need support for Warren coming from somewhere, and Turner is one of the best options.  Other than Turner, no one is really good from 3, but there are four guys between 23% and 28%.  Xavier cannot allow them to get wide-open looks and needs to at least challenge them on any shot attempts from deep, but if they do that job well, NC State won’t even attempt many three-point shots and will have to turn to Turner for their only perimeter shooting.  It’s why they rank 339th in the ratio of three-point attempts to field-goal attempts.

On the other end, three-point defense is the only thing that the Wolfpack are actually decent at, holding opponents to 32.0% (61st).  This isn’t a major part of Xavier’s game, as they are only a little ahead of NC State in ratio of attempts at 310th.  Whereas NC State as a team is just awful from deep (30.3%, 325th), Xavier has scouted itself well and is just selective (35.4%, 125th).  Justin Martin has become the team’s only consistent three-point option, shooting 39.1% on the season and 43.0% in conference play.  Dee Davis is the only other regular option (37.3%), and he’s streaky like Turner.  I still have no idea what happened to James Farr (38.0%) and Myles Davis (33.9%), especially since Farr was shooting 37.5% in the first half of conference play.

Martin continuing to be Martin and some timely shots from his teammates could be important in this game, but Xavier will spend more time slashing to the basket or working the ball through the bigs.  NC State’s two-point defense (47.1%) only ranks 122nd, playing to Xavier’s strengths (51.5%, 58th).

Free Throws

This is an area where Xavier should have a big advantage.  The Wolfpack send players to the line way too much, with opponents shooting 43.1% as many free-throws as they do field goals (233rd).  Xavier is by no means good at drawing fouls, with a rate of 42.0% (122nd), but they are clearly better at getting to the line than NC State is at preventing opponents from doing so.  Also, Semaj Christon has a personal FT rate of 57.0%, though after a well-known early-season slump, he’s only shooting 67.0% on the season.  Isaiah Philmore is even better at getting to the line (70.2% FT rate), converting attempts at a 70.5% rate.  The team as a whole is shooting better than their 68.8% average, as they joined Semaj in that early season slump, so they should be able to get a lot of points at the free throw line.

NC State is even worse at getting to the line than stopping their opponents from ending up there, with a FT rate of 36.4%, 281st in the country.  Warren does draw 6.1 fouls per 40 minutes (133rd), but not enough are on shot attempts, as his FT rate is only 33.3% (The bigger concern here could be if he gets Martin into foul trouble).  Only Desmond Lee has a good FT rate (58.6%, 205th) among players with respectable usage rates.  When NC State gets to the line, most of their team is hovering around 70% or worse, which is why they are shooting 66.1% (296th).  Add this together with Xavier’s advantage on offense, and this should be a game where Xavier makes more free throws than their opponents attempt (like the good old days!).

Semaj Christon

I’m book-ending this post with the two star players (and former roommates at Brewster Academy).  Xavier will have a hard time slowing down Warren, but NC State could find it just as difficult, if not more so, to stop Semaj.  It’s not that Semaj is necessarily better than Warren; they’re both great players.  NC State has really struggled with big, athletic guards, though, as they have no defensive answer, whereas Xavier can somewhat answer Warren with Martin, Philmore, and Reynolds.  Look for Semaj to have a big game slicing through NC State’s weak defense (144th in adjusted defensive efficiency).

So the key are:

– Slow down Warren, preventing his teammates from getting involved

– Do a decent job on the defensive glass and dominate the offensive glass

– Challenge the poor three-point shooters and lockdown Turner, while looking for timely shots on the other end.

– Make more free throws than NC State attempts

– Let Semaj go to work

Let’s hope Xavier gets an opportunity to play SLU!

Big East Tournament Semi-Finals: Xavier vs. Creighton

I think we’ve determined that Doug McDermott is pretty good at the game of basketball. (Lenny Ignelzi, AP Photo)

Since Xavier has virtually secured a tournament bid, fans can rest easy tonight, a loss tonight versus a top 10 team being very understandable in the Selection Committee’s eyes.  The team, however, might take a different perspective.  You don’t get to the high Division 1 level as a player or as a coach without being highly competitive.  In the moment of the game, a loss is never “okay” or “understandable.”  Now that a tournament appearance is pretty much guaranteed, the team is thinking about a championship (Okay, a lot of fans are too).  The Xavier Musketeers are two games away from taking home the first trophy of the new version of the Big East Tournament.  With Villanova surprised by Seton Hall in the quarterfinals, the nightmare matchup has been eliminated and the tougher game comes tonight against the 2-seed, Creighton. The winner will face Providence or Seton Hall for a chance to win the Big East title (I still give credit to Villanova for winning THE Big East title, the regular season one, but the tournament title is a nice consolation prize).

After splitting the regular-season games with the Bluejays by equal margins, this is an intriguing matchup.  Creighton fans will tell you that they do not match up well with Xavier, which is true:  Semaj is extremely difficult for them (or anyone) to stop and though they can pull Xavier’s bigs out behind the three-point line, they can’t match their size and physicality on the other side of the ball.  Make no bones about it, Creighton is clearly the superior team and their historically good offense could be carrying them to a Final Four in a couple weeks, but I am fairly satisfied with this match-up (I mean, Jesus, Seton Hall on the other side of the bracket somehow beat Xavier twice!).  Also, you can’t help but like the team or their fans.  It should be a hell of a game.

First off, you don’t “stop” Doug McDermott (unless you’re George Washington, apparently).  He could end up being as high as #2 on the D1 all-time scorers list, and that doesn’t occur by accident,, as he can get buckets pretty much anywhere on the court.  You just try to make life difficult for him, which Xavier did in the return game at Cintas.  Yes, he put up 27 points, but Justin Martin, et. al., but he was only moderately efficient, as opposed to his usual highly efficient.  Because of how much they harried him while not losing his teammates, he also couldn’t create very effectively, notching only two assists to five turnovers.  None of his teammates scored in double digits in that encounter, and their failure to stop anyone from Xavier on the other side led to a Musketeer win.

That’s better than the game in Omaha.  Four of McDermott’s teammates scored in double figures, as Xavier was stuck between trying to stop him and trying to hold them in check and thus failed at both.  Ethan Wragge’s 35-foot three-pointers (some contested!) were particularly back-breaking, but Austin Chatman, Jahenns Manigat, and Devin Brooks all scored effectively, especially from deep, as they are the perfect role players to the best player in the nation.

Luckily, Xavier found the formula for Creighton in that second game, but undoubtedly the Bluejays will be trying to figure out how to work around that.  Wragge needs to be facemasked again, as his three-point shooting can be such a momentum changer, but the defense cannot play off the other excellent shooters in an attempt to stop McDermott.  To use a common phrase, they need to “let him get his,” because his teammates cannot get a lot of points on their own, unless the defense focuses too much on him.  Transition defense is particularly important.  Like they did in the game at Cintas, Xavier needs to fan out on shooters, as Creighton’s guards are more often probing the defense when they drive into the lane rather than directly trying to score, looking for help defense to come off the shooters, so they can kick the ball out for a three.  Defending Creighton does not simply involve defending the three-point line, though.  Villanova, whose defense focuses on forcing teams to beat them from three-point range, got burned by a 22-35 (60.0%) barrage from deep in the first meeting.  They focused on defending the three in the next game and proceeded to give up plenty of points inside the arc (25-38, 65.8%) and at the free throw line (24-26, 92.3%).  In their game last night against Marquette, Xavier did a good job of defending the three without giving up too much, their major flaw being allowing athletic slashers to cut into the lane for close attempts.  Creighton does not have much in the way of athleticism, and their interior scoring is not based much off dribble-drives, so a similar defensive performance could net similar results.  That is, provided that Dougie McBuckets doesn’t do against Xavier what he did against DePaul.  What is a little disheartening is that even against good defense, McDermott has the ability to win a game all by himself.

Big East Tournament: Xavier vs. Marquette

Stainbrook’s presence against Gardner will be missed tonight. (Joe Robbins/Getty Images North America)

So it comes down to this:  Xavier’s first appearance in the Big East Tournament.  Hopes on the line.  A spot in the NCAA Tournament virtually guaranteed with a win vs. Marquette.  A lot of sweat on Selection Sunday with a loss.  And no Matt Stainbrook, a Honorable Mention on the Big East all-conference teams (and the only center on any of the teams).

Xavier has lost its last two games without Stainbrook, after he strained his MCL early on in the Seton Hall game.  Of course, those two losses were at Seton Hall, as the team had to adjust to his absence (and worry about his health) mid-game, and versus Villanova, one of the top teams in the country.  Hardly an awful slide.  P.S. Due to finally being healthy again, Seton Hall is much better than their record.  If you doubt that, maybe you just missed them beating Villanova in the Big East Tournament.

Understandable losses or not, Xavier has to prove to the Selection Committee that they are still effective without Stainbrook.  He should be back next week for the beginning of the tournament, but undoubtedly Committee members will wonder how effective he will be after being out, even if he is reported to be 100%.  If they win without him, particularly since it’s only the RPI #84 team, they’ll at least give the idea that they don’t need a 100% Stainbrook to be a tournament-level team.  Then his return will just be an additional help.

That being said, Marquette is a particularly tough match-up without Stainbrook, because of a certain Davante Gardner, the only player on the squad who is consistently effective.  Gardner is big, at 290 pounds, and has a way of pushing around his opponents, much like Gene Teague did versus Reynolds, et. al., in the Seton Hall game after Stainbrook was out.  He also draws fouls at a very high rate (6.9 per 40 minutes, 46th in the country, and yes, it sometimes involve flopping), which is worrisome for a now short-handed frontcourt full of players with high foul rates.  Isaiah Philmore and Erik Stenger both average 4.8 fouls per 40 minutes, and James Farr and Jalen Reynolds are worse, at 5.7 and 7.6 (!), respectively.  In addition to Gardner’s ability to draw fouls, he can also put the ball in the basket at a good percentage.  He makes 78.8% of his free throws when he goes to the line and 54.8% of his two-point field goal attempts.  Put that together with a very low turnover rate (10.2%, 72nd) and a good offensive rebounding rate (9.9%, 310th), and you have an excellent offensive player.  Luckily, he isn’t really known for being even decent on the defensive end.  Xavier can’t handle him one-on-one without Stainbrook, so look for them to post-trap him every opportunity they get.  This is all well and good for stopping the big guy, but it leads to other problems:  (1) It opens up lane for Gardner’s teammates, who are athletic and good at finishing at the rim, and (2) it makes it more difficult to guard three-pointers, which a poor-shooting Marquette squad seems to have a propensity at making versus Xavier.

On the perimeter shooting front, Jake Thomas has proven himself to be a Xavier killer.  He’s a good three-point shooter otherwise, but it’s not like Brad Redford has stepped onto the court in an opponent’s uniform.  Perhaps his great shooting performance in the first game gave him confidence in the second round, which led him to take (and unfortunately make) some deeper shots that he doesn’t normally attempt.  Two other factors also probably played into consecutive rounds of hot shooting, though, both by him and by the team at large.

First off, Xavier’s three-point defense against Marquette left something to be desired.  Now, against Marquette the standard and usually effective strategy is to pack it in because in general they do not have good shooters, Thomas being the only one that qualifies.  Since they are an athletic team of slashers with a good frontcourt of Gardner, Chris Otule, and company, you make Marquette beat you from the outside.  In two instances, this didn’t really work for Xavier, though in the first occasion, they had enough offensive firepower to make up for it.  What played a part was how they were defending the mediocre shooters.  Instead of offering a late contest (like they did very well @St. John’s), they were leaving them wide-open.  You don’t leave a 30-32% shooter wide-open from deep; you play off of him and then get a hand up if he decides he’s going to shoot.  If you leave him wide-open, that mediocre shooter suddenly becomes a pretty good shooter, percentage-wise, and you’re playing with fire.

Secondly, and fans often don’t want to hear this, but luck played a part.  Steve Taylor has attempted 13 three-pointers all year.  The only two he has ever made were one in each game versus Xavier.  That’s just absurd.  It also is representative of Marquette as a whole:  Twice now their players are shooting well, despite overall percentages indicating otherwise.  My bet:  That won’t happen a third time.  Without Stainbrook, that doesn’t guarantee a win, but I doubt Xavier is going to lose because of that.

From One Bird to Another

There’s a reason the Bluejay looks happier than the Golden Eagle.  The Bluejay is watching a much better team.

Sorry for the delay in posting after Xavier beat the Golden Eagles!  It was a wonderful victory, but the extended period of free time demanded for writing articles was instead taken up by getting prepared at the beginning of the semester of classes.  I’m going to give a rundown of the Marquette game, summing up the game in general and taking a look at the major points in my preview, before turning to a preview of the Creighton Bluejays, who the Musketeers face in Omaha.

First off, I’m an idiot.  I predicted “an ugly defensive grudge match” (and repeated it too in that post!), but that couldn’t be further from the truth in this game.  Supposedly, these two teams were supposed to put really good defenses on the court while their offense wasn’t quite as good.  Instead, Xavier scored an astounding 1.28 points per possession, while Marquette “only” managed 1.18 points per possession.  The outcome was so different from pregame expectations that Xavier’s offensive efficiency is now ranked higher (#35, up about 30 spots) than their defensive efficiency (#48, down about 20 spots).  Nearly everyone on both sides had an offensive rating over 100.  Let’s see how it went on my list of “Things to Watch Out For” from the game:

Davante Gardner vs. Matt Stainbrook

This didn’t quite work out like planned.  Stainbrook picked up 2 quick fouls in the first five minutes of the game and sat the rest of the half (credit to what the Xavier frontline did without him).  He wasn’t bad when he got back in and at times dictated his will, just like in previous games, but it wasn’t quite a dominant performance offensively.  He managed the following line:  7 points (2-5 FG/3-4 FT), 8 rebounds (3 offensive), 3 assists, 3 turnovers, 1 block.  On the glass, he was his usual dominant self, even if he wasn’t able to score as much as in other games.  Defensively he did a solid job against whoever he faced, but Davante Gardner in particular (unsurprisingly) proved to be a load in the paint.

Gardner held up his end of this matchup on the offensive end.  He scored 19 points on a solid 7 of 14 shooting while making 5 of 6 from the line.  At times Marquette would just get him the ball in the paint and he would somehow find a way to score despite the tight defense.  He took some questionable jump shots, and the announcers were right to point out the poor strategy, that he should get back in the post, where he was scoring so effectively.  On the other end, he and his teammates did a good job containing Stainbrook in the post.  Thanks to Stainbrook, et. al., however, he was not able to rebound too effectively, only able to grab 4, though no one else on his team had even that many.  It will be interesting to see how this matchup of two of the conference’s best bigs plays out when they meet again up in Milwaukee.  In this saga, the final tally is:

Scoring:  Advantage, Gardner / Defense:  Even / Rebounding:   Advantage, Stainbrook

Xavier’s Offensive Consistency

Xavier’s offense dominated Marquette’s defense, as I mentioned before.  Scoring 1.28 points per possession?  Ridiculous.  The offense flowed smoothly and everyone got involved.  The team’s 58.3% A/FGM mark was steady with their very respectable average, and this sharing allowed them to shoot 54.5% from inside the arc, 46.2% from outside the arc, and 78.0% from the foul line while attempting 41 shots (31 before the foul-fest in the last 44 seconds).  The Musketeers got themselves good looks on jump shots and were able to draw fouls regularly when they drove inside.  Their 12 turnovers (17.9% rate) were the one offensive blemish in an otherwise excellent night.

What about the individual performances?  Stainbrook having to go to the bench and only playing half the game in the end proved to be no problem.  James Farr lit up the Golden Eagles in his limited playing time on a perfect shooting night from the field:  3-3 on two-pointers and 1-1 on three-pointers for 10 points, including a vicious putback dunk.  Isaiah Philmore put together another low-usage high-efficiency game, making 3 of his 4 shots from the field and another 3 of 4 from the line to once again fall just short of double digits.  Dee Davis had 6 assists to 1 turnover, and though he didn’t shoot well from the field (1-5/1-3), he nailed 8 of 9 free throws to help secure the win.  Justin Martin put together another great offensive performance, scoring 15 points on the following shooting line:  4-6/1-3/4-4.  He was constantly challenging the offense, playing aggressively, and sliding into the seams in the defense, like on one of Semaj Christon’s drives to the basket where Martin was waiting in the gap for the defense to collapse on Semaj.  They did, Semaj passed it off to Martin, and he drove in for the easy lay-in.  This needs to be said:  Semaj is starting to consistently look for Martin in the offense.  With all the options on the team, the team’s assists man and star player is looking for the enigmatic small forward to score.  That’s confidence for you.

Now let’s talk about Semaj’s day.  It was succinctly described by one message board poster:  “28 POINTS ON 10 SHOTS!”  Semaj managed only 2 assists (and his first turnover in three weeks!) because he was able to score so effectively himself up against a purportedly good defense.  This was hands-down the best game of his college career.  He was 5 of 7 on two-point field goals and 3-3 from three-point range.  For a player criticized for his shooting, those three-pointers stand out.  The first was a catch-and-shoot basket on the wing after he was demanding the ball.  The next two?  Marquette had tied the game 69-69 with less than 5 minutes to play after coming back from an 11-point deficit.  Semaj responded on the other side by pulling up for a three-point shot on the wing well behind the line and nailing it as the shot clock was running down.  Marquette missed a jumper on the other end, and after a TV timeout, Semaj was heavily guarded on the same wing as the last two attempts with the shot clock once again running down.  He created some space with the dribble and then turned to sink the heavily contested pull-up shot.  It was just remarkable shooting and incredible confidence from a player who hesitated to shoot from three-point range for most of his career.  Those threes put Xavier up by 6 and the Musketeers kept the lead through the rest of the game.

Battle of the Boards

Since Marquette’s offense was also lighting it up, especially from 3 (11-27), Xavier’s offense alone would not guarantee the win.  That’s okay, though, because they dominated the glass by a 39-20 margin.  The Musketeers grabbed 44.0% of their own misses while holding the Golden Eagles to only 17.6% of theirs.  That is a hard margin for any team to overcome and it helped Xavier secure the game.  As usual this season, the rebounding was a team effort.  Six players grabbed at least one offensive rebound, led by Stainbrook with 3 in just 22 minutes and Farr with 2 in just 12 minutes.  Dee actually managed to grab 2 himself on the offensive end to continue Xavier’s possession.  On the defensive end, they held Marquette to one shot through that same team effort.  Martin picked up 7 defensive rebounds, probably helped by his need to play a few more minutes than normal at the 4 this game, but his rebounding from the wing has helped Xavier to win every battle of the glass since the Bowling Green game.  Stainbrook picked up another 5 on this end in his limited time, and Jalen Reynolds picked up 5 defensive rebounds in just 13 minutes.  The game seems to be slowing down for Reynolds, as he finally played some quality minutes this season, keeping Erik Stenger (3 minutes) generally on the bench despite the Stain’s foul trouble and playing more minutes than Farr for the first time this season despite Farr having a really good offensive game.

The defense could have been better, admittedly, but sometimes teams just make shots.  Xavier packed it in against Marquette to neutralize their athleticism and the strong play from their bigs because they were supposed to be (and really, they are) a bad shooting team.  The Golden Eagles defied the scouting report on them and hoisted up and made more shots from deep than they have in any game this season.  Xavier kept packing it in despite the shooting performance because (1) it was unlikely that they would stay that hot and (2) spreading out the defense would open opportunities for Marquette’s stronger options inside.  They did stay that hot from 3, though, but Xavier’s offense was so efficient and their work on the glass so dominant that they managed to secure the win.

On to Omaha!

Xavier is up against the number one offense in the country playing on their home floor in front of a packed house.  Previous Xavier squads became familiar with this setting and had gone up there and lost to lesser squads.  This time, though, the Bluejays are really, really good.  They complement that elite offense with a good defense, one that holds opponents to just one shot, doesn’t send opponents to the line, and does a decent job of contesting shots.  Points will not come easy against this smart, disciplined crew.  If Xavier can overcome Creighton’s strong defensive rebounding to get second-chance points, it would go a long way toward victory.

The offense though is the showcase here, so I’ll turn to that.  For starters, the Bluejays are good at holding onto the ball but mediocre at getting offensive rebounds, so they will at least get that first shot , just not the second (if Xavier’s toughness on the glass continues).  Also, they don’t get to the line much at all compared to other schools, holding a FTA/FGA ratio of 32.2%, so Xavier’s defense must be smart and not give them free trips, because they usually aren’t looking for them with all their jump shots.  They are so efficient because they shoot so well and because they are patient, waiting to find the best look.  Their three-point percentage is 43.3%, the best in the nation, and they are good within the arc too at 52.5%, for an overall effective field goal percentage of 58.1%.  That’s tough to defend against, especially the three-point shot.

And what makes it tougher?  National Player of the Year candidate Doug McDermott gets buckets.  The 6’8” forward (their biggest player) has one of the highest usage rates in the country at 32.5% and ranks even higher on percentage of team’s shots when on the floor, 35.9%.  It’s okay that he’s the guy they go to so often, because he doesn’t turn it over before the shot and his true shooting percentage is 61.7%.  That is made possible through a 51.2% mark on two-pointers, 42.9% on threes, and 90.6% from the line.  He actually draws fouls at a really good rate, 7.0 per 40 minutes, but he himself rarely gets into foul trouble (2.2 called per 40 minutes), the recent DePaul blowout being one of the lone exceptions.  McDermott is such a prolific scorer that his 19 points against DePaul is tied for his second lowest mark this season.  Even with his sprained AC joint in his right shoulder, he will be tough for Xavier to stop.

Martin could definitely see time guarding him, as Martin’s weakness is lateral quickness, which quick perimeter players exploit.  McDermott is much more savvy than quick, so Martin’s physical deficiency won’t be exposed but he has to play smart.  Philmore could see time defending him too, and he would be fairly effective guarding the All-American in the post, but he isn’t a very good defender at the three-point line.  Xavier probably won’t be able to employ their same strategy against Creighton as they did against Butler to lock down Dunham, because the role players on the team are such good, smart shooters that overplaying McDermott could prove fatal.  In the end, you don’t really lockdown Doug McDermott (unless you’re George Washington, I suppose); you just pray you can contain him while his role players do minimal damage.  Speaking of role players, Grant Gibbs will be out for about a month with a dislocated kneecap.  Truthfully, the 6th-year senior wing is more than just a role player.  The team’s glue guy and an efficient scorer when called upon, he is one of the team’s leading assists men, and the offense often runs through him a la Stainbrook to allow McDermott to go to work off the ball.  His absence will hurt, though key reserve guard Devin Brooks, whose assist rate is actually higher than Gibbs’, could prove to be a vital player to fill that void.

Things I’m Wondering About:

How will Creighton guard Semaj?  The sophomore guard has been on an absolutely tear, establishing himself as possibly one of the best point guards in the country and justifying the talk of the NBA.  He is both highly athletic and highly skilled, a combination that could prove challenging for Creighton’s smart and cohesive yet non-athletic defense.  His three-point shooting of late has just made it more challenging, because in a small sample size, he’s at least giving the suggestion that he will punish you if you play off of him and pack it in.  And there’s probably something to that, not necessarily at his 45.5% clip so far, but it does not seem wise to let Semaj shoot open three-pointers.  Will the Bluejays trap and double-team him?  With how the other Musketeers are playing, that could be very risky.  Will they play something like a box-and-1 in order to pressure him while keeping it packed in?  Better hope this is a poor night for Xavier’s three-point shooting.  Will they play him straight up and just try to limit him?  Might be the best option.

How will defensive matchups in general work?  In terms of size, these are very different teams, which will make for some crazy matchups.  Semaj and McDermott when they’re on offense I already mentioned.  McDermott is the team’s biggest starter, but I can’t imagine him guarding Stainbrook on defense.  His teammate, 6’7” 225-lb Ethan Wragge, doesn’t seem to be a much better option.  Bench player 6’11” 230-lb Will Artino could see more time, because it seems like Stainbrook would have a field day against the starters whenever he can get space.  On the other side, though, who will the Big Stain guard?  Or who will Philmore or Farr guard, for that matter?  Creighton plays a bunch of wings, with Wragge and 6’9” 245-lb Zach Hanson (6.7mpg) as the only more traditional bigs on the team.  It should make for a lot of anxiety for both coaches.

Can Xavier win or at least play tough in a hostile road game against a really good opponent?  Alabama was the one road game Xavier has played this year.  The Crimson Tide are only a decent team, though, and I’m not sure how many SEC fans are aware that basketball exists before football season Is over.  It was a great road scalp to pick up, but the atmosphere (and the opponent) just doesn’t compare to what Xavier will face tomorrow night.  If they lose this game by 10 (the starting Vegas line), no one would be surprised.  But, they’ve been playing very well, both on defense (okay, ignore the Marquette aberration) and on offense, with everyone sharing the ball and scoring at a decent clip.  They could win this game, and it would be huge for both conference standings and the tournament resume.  I’m interested to see what happens, and I honestly don’t know what to expect.

The Golden Eagles Come to Town

Davante Gardner, a beast in the paint, presented without comment. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

In part two of the Big East primer, I commented that Marquette was a solid overall team, with a great defense but it was questionable how much the offense could improve with poor shooters and a bunch of upperclassmen.  In part three of the primer, the tournament capsules section, I noted that they simply hadn’t done enough in the non-conference schedule to feel good at all about their tournament chances at the beginning of the conference schedule (the loss @Creighton having already happened).  That’s normally a recipe for a dangerous team:  Decent quality mixed with desperation.

But after the very understandable loss in Omaha (I pray that Xavier is not due a similar fate), the Golden Eagles didn’t exactly wow the world with their performance against the Big East punching bag, DePaul.  On their home court, they only won by 10 against a straight-up bad team.  Not only that, Marquette did not experience their first lead until there were less than 8 minutes in the game, despite holding the Blue Demons to the following multi-minute scoring droughts prior to that:  2 minutes, 5 minutes, 2 minutes, 3 minutes, and 6 minutes.  This just makes clear both how good Marquette’s defense was (though at least some credit has to go to how bad DePaul was on offense) and how bad their offense was for much of the game.  Maybe they’re not desperate enough yet.  Now I’ll give them some props.  They only scored 0.84 points per possession through the first 31 minutes against the 150th “most efficient” defense in the land, but they figured things out late and scored 1.53 points per possession in those last nine minutes.  Still, especially after a beatdown at the hands (feathers?) of the Bluejays, this is not the kind of game that makes the conference season look promising for the pre-season favorites to win the Big East.

So, which Marquette offense is going to show up?  I couldn’t tell you, but I’ll at least predict this:  This is going to be an ugly, defensive grudge match.  They got taken behind the woodshed by Creighton but still managed to hold the #1 offense in the country to 1.05 points per possession in Omaha.  The defense is going to show up.

Things to Watch Out For:

Davante Gardner vs. Matt Stainbrook

Gardner was the only who played really well on the offensive end against DePaul, which is no surprise, as that’s the story of the whole season.  At 6’8″ and 290 pounds, he is an absolute load in the paint.  He has a nationally ranked usage rate of 26.1% and still manages an excellent offensive rating of 118.7.  He converts two-pointers at an efficient rate (57.3%) and gets to the line at a decent rate, shooting okay there (69.3%), all while not turning the ball over and grabbing about 10% of his team’s misses.  On the defensive end, he’s a solid shot blocker, though his partner in the post, Chris Otule, is the real shot blocker on the team.

Opposite Gardner stands Xavier’s own massive human being, Matt Stainbrook.  At 6’10” and 263 pounds he has a height advantage but doesn’t have as much weight to throw around.  The 40 pounds he’s shed as Xavier though have allowed him to be much more agile on both ends of the court.  Stainbrook’s offensive rating is right behind Gardner’s at 116.2, but his direct usage rate isn’t quite as high.  I say “direct,” because the offense usually runs through him, even if he doesn’t always get credit,  The Big Stain’s shooting numbers are similar to Gardner, though he doesn’t get to the line as often, but he is an excellent passer out of the post.  On the glass, he is a good step above Gardner on both ends, and he is a better shot blocker too.

Since we can rule Georgetown’s Josh Smith out for his inability to play defense or see starter’s minutes, this right here is the matchup at the center position in the BIg East.  This will be the first of two installments of the conference’s two best centers going at it, trying to lead their teams to victory.

Related note:  Reid Forgrave of Fox Sports asserted that Xavier has the best front line in the conference.  When I looked at the different teams, Marquette looked to be one of the only squads that could compete for that claim.  It should be interesting to watch what happens in the paint, even when the two giants aren’t in the game.

Xavier’s Offensive Consistency

Other than the mediocre mark against Wake (1.01 points per possession), Xavier has scored the ball fairly well since the Cincinnati game.  Their ratio of assists to made field goals is among the better marks in the country, as they share the ball very well and turn to whatever options are working best at the time.  This could be Semaj Christon taking on the scoring load for a period, like when he dominated the latter part of the first half against Butler.  It could involve Stainbrook finishing repeatedly in the post rather than passing it back out, like through much of the second half of the same game.  Justin Martin could go on some scoring spurts to keep the offense moving, as he has in the last couple of games.  Everyone knows the offensive onslaughts that James Farr can bring about off the bench, and a cool Myles Davis is bound to come out of his slump at some point.  Or Dee Davis could seize the opportunities given to him by the defense and put up some points, like in the second half of the Butler game where he scored all of his 12 points.  The team is unselfish, ready to turn to whoever is hot at the moment or whoever has a mismatch to exploit.  The question arises though:  Will they be able to find someone that is meeting that description during the game up against a stout Marquette defense?  Will there consistently be someone to turn to or will the Musketeers encounter some of the scoring droughts that they have experienced and that Marquette has forced upon teams?  And if that scoring drought happens, I’m curious to see how Semaj is going to respond.  Recent results are very positive.

Battle of the Boards

This is a tight matchup.  Xavier has been a good defensive rebounding team this season, but Marquette has been a notch better on the offense glass, grabbing 37.1% of their own misses.  This seems to happen with athletic teams that can’t shoot (see:  Cincinnati, University of).  On the other side, neither is as good, but Xavier holds a small advantage and they have actually performed very well on the offensive glass in recent games, other than the most recent game against Butler.

It should be a great game!  Xavier is the better team, in my opinion, because while Marquette might have a slight edge on the defensive end, the Musketeers’ offense is just so much better.  Combine that with the home court advantage, and I think Xavier will secure the victory.  However, remember my prediction:  “an ugly, defensive grudge match.”  Xavier’s offense isn’t exactly elite yet, and though it should be able to outperform Marquette’s offense, I think the Golden Eagles’ defense will work to keep it close.

The Skip Prosser Classic

Hopefully this game can honor such a great man for the sport! (Camel City Dispatch)

Another week gone by, another long layover between Xavier games.  From here on out, though, the games start coming quickly, beginning with the nonconference finale, where the Musketeers will face the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Cintas Center as part of the Skip Prosser Classic.  There are some good articles about the great man behind the series – Gregg Doyel’s take and the preview from the Cincinnati Enquirer are good reads – but I would like to focus on this specific matchup.

Where are they coming from?

There were serious questions about how much one could draw from the Crosstown Blowout (as impressive as it was), considering the trip to Atlantis wasn’t exactly good and the home wins over Kenpom #203 Bowling Green and #186 Evansville were too close for comfort.  Many of those concerns were alleviated after a road win over a decent (#59) Alabama team, one which tested the team’s resolve up against a double-digit deficit early in the second half.  The Atlantis Implosion is looking more and more like an anomaly that occurred because of this new team first encountering adversity.  They have since learned from that experience, and their talent is beginning to show against some solid opponents.  Ranked #45 by Kenpom and riding a four-game win streak, the Musketeers are starting to look really good and are hoping to finish the non-conference portion of the schedule on a good note at a respectable 10-3.

Wake Forest is also riding a four-game win streak, though their slate was a little less impressive:  #293 Tulane, #70 Richmond (in overtime), #105 St. Bonaventure, and #310 UNC-Greensboro, all at home.  The Demon Deacons (#84) have some real challenges ahead of them:  Xavier on the road, #19 UNC at home, and #23 Virginia and #9 Pittsburgh on the road, and they’ll have to start answering questions against their first quality competition after their own underwhelming performance in Atlantis.  Robert Reinhard over at SB Nation’s Blogger So Dear isn’t too optimistic:  “It’s quite possible I could have skipped that entire analysis and just pointed out that Wake Forest is playing a road game and Jeff Bzdelik is the coach. Wake Forest has won just three road games under Jeff Bzdelik, and one of those was against High Point.”  I definitely sympathize with him on Bzdelik; still a mind-boggling hire, only explainable by the AD’s friendship with the former leader of some mediocre Colorado teams.

How do they match up?

Both rely more on their defense (Xavier ranked #36 and Wake ranked #47), but Xavier’s offense (#69) is distinctly better than Wake’s (#161).  Xavier is pretty good on the defensive boards, but Wake Forest has been one of the best in the nation at holding teams to one shot per possession, although one should remember that these numbers are not adjusted for strength of schedule.  Since the teams are practically equal on the offensive glass, Xavier has a challenge in front of them.  They must show some of the same toughness and tenacity as they have in the past two games in order to win this battle on the glass, especially since Wake holds its opponents to a low percentage on their shots.

Another stat worth considering is FT rate.  The Demon Deacons are pretty awful when they get to the line, but they are still good at getting there in the first place, and Xavier isn’t good at preventing that.  Do Xavier fans really want to hope that their stellar free-throw defense holds up for another game?

Bzdelik also observed to the Winstom-Salem Journal that some of the team’s key players actually mirror each other.  He says, “Stainbrook is a lefty, and he’s physical, rugged and tough. He plays with passion, similar to a player we have. They’ve got a guy in Christon who is a one-man fast break, similar to a guy we have. They’ve got a guy [Myles Davis] who can shoot it very, very well, very similar to a guy we have.  He’s talking about the following players:

Devin Thomas – 11.8 ppg / 9.8 rpg (54.9% Effective FG Pct., 53.9% FT Rate, 3.4% Block Pct.)

Codi Miller-McIntye – Leading scorer, 17.5 ppg (ORtg 114.6, 25.2% Possessions, 24.8% Assist Rate)

Coron Williams – 43% from 3 (ORtg 131.9, 15.7% Poss., 3.7% TO Rate)

He’s right; it is like a mirror!  Frankly, though, it’s a blurry mirror overall that Xavier is looking into, and there isn’t enough glass cleaner (That’s right, I’m sticking with the mirror analogy) to disguise the fact that Xavier simply is a better team than Wake Forest.  Their defense is a notch above, and their offense is much better and on the rise as Christon’s stardom and the rest of the team’s notable contributions blend together more and more (1.10 and 1.20 points per possession in the last two games against two good defensive teams).  At Wake, I might still pick Xavier, but at home, this should be theirs for the taking, preferably by double digits.

Around the Conference

The Carrier Dome game between #8 Villanova and #2 Syracuse in the early afternoon is the headline game in college basketball tomorrow, except for maybe the Battle of the Bluegrass between Louisville and Kentucky.  It would be a huge win for Villanova, setting them up for 1-seed discussion throughout the conference schedule, and it would be fantastic for the Big East as a whole through the boost to conference prestige (Sorry, Villanova, we have to live vicariously through you to a degree).  Conference wins over the Wildcats would also be further augmented, as one can expect them to drop a couple games in the Big East schedule.  It will be interesting to see what happens when Syracuse has the ball.  They bring the #9 offense in the nation in adjusted efficiency, but they’ll be up against the #2 defense!  Who will blink first?  Their matchup on the other side of the court is also about even, just not elite (though not to be snobby, as Xavier can’t even claim a #28 defense or a #35 offense).

The other game to watch for tomorrow is the Providence game at #23 Massachusetts.  This is a really tough match-up for the Friars, especially with all they have lost to injury or suspension, but it would be a fantastic win over one of the hotter teams in the country.  Do I think Providence will win?  No, if I was betting even money.  But while the game is still uncertain, the matchup remains compelling, because Providence does have some serious talent still healthy and eligible (apparently a tough combo) in Bryce Cotton, LaDontae Henton, and Tyler Harris.

Down in Tuscaloosa: Alabama Prep

Trevor Releford is absolutely necessary to Alabama’s offense (Mark Almond/The Birmingham News)

A young Xavier squad heads into their first road game of the season, up against a decent opponent picked to finish 6th in the SEC.  They encounter a good defense and some offensive talent but an over-reliance on a talented scoring point guard.  Sound familiar?  Let’s wade in!

In terms of overall efficiency adjusted for strength of schedule, these two teams are practically the same, ranked 55th (Xavier) and 58th (Alabama) in Pythagorean winning percentage, the predictor for a team’s probability of succeeding in future games.  Their offenses aren’t that great in adjusted efficiency (Xavier scoring 1.063 points per possession against the perfectly average team and Alabama scoring 1.070 points per possession, ranked 117th and 103rd respectively).  The defenses, however, are both really good, Xavier allowing only 0.948 points per possession (29th) and Alabama allowing 0.955 PPP (36th).  Their defensive tempos are fairly similar, but Alabama takes a little bit longer on offense than Xavier.  It’s pretty clear that statistically it’s a wash, with Alabama getting the advantage for being the home team.  As we will discover, though, their stories are much different as to how those overarching averages are reached.

After their loss to Duke in the NIT Season Tip-Off, Kieran Darcy of ESPN said, “Alabama isn’t a good offensive team to begin with. But if Releford doesn’t score, the Crimson Tide won’t win many games.”  So let’s talk about senior point guard Trevor Releford.  If you want to get an idea of how important he is to this team, think of Xavier without Semaj.  And no, don’t reference the UC game; that’s cheating.  Think last ten minutes of the Iowa game.  Yep, he’s that damn important.  And I’m a little sorry for making you remember the Iowa game again.  Releford is known to be a really good ballhandler involved in 25.5% of Alabama’s possessions, while shooting a good 38.5% from outside the arc and an excellent 58.2% from inside.  And that interior shooting percentage happens when 6’0″ is quite generous height-wise for him.  He is okay at getting to the line, but when he gets there, he’s money, having missed only two free throws the entire season (29-31).  Maybe Xavier’s #2-in-the-nation free-throw defense will put a stop to that!

Essentially, Trevor Releford (to distinguish from his brother Travis over at Kansas) shoots well from the outside and takes about half his shots from out there.  Only one other player (junior wing Levi Randolph, 37%) can actually qualify as “good” so far from three-point range on a team ranked 234th in three-point percentage, so it’s no surprise that Releford has made one-third of their threes.

What Releford’s outside shooting does though is forces defenders to challenge him, opening up driving lanes for the little man where he can make plays like Semaj.  Unlike Semaj and his solid 24.4% assist rate, though, Releford finishes more of those plays himself, which is fair when you are shooting 58% inside, but his good-for-a-shooting-guard-yet-team-best 18.0% assist rate does reflect a team-wide tendency:  Alabama ranks 304th in A/FGM at 44.3%.  Rush The Court writer Greg Mitchell sums up Alabama’s problems with ball-sharing and three-point shooting:  “The problem for Alabama is that the only player on their team who has proven he can do both effectively over the long term is Trevor Releford.  Playing him off the ball would create more space for Retin Obasohan’s slashing and Nick Jacobs’ hook shots.  But the Tide need Releford to handle the ball and run the offense.”

Since Mitchell mentioned him, let’s move on to Obasohan real quick.  He is much improved in his sophomore campaign (As a freshman, he wasn’t necessarily bad, but he wasn’t consistently good either).  As a slashing 6’1″ guard, Obasohan is solid at finishing at the rim (50% on 2-pointers), but where he really shines is his FT rate:  91.2%.  That means he has almost as many FT attempts as FG attempts, which is just absurd when you realize it is not a small sample size a la Jalen Reynolds.  Obviously, Releford’s shooting helps create space for Obasohan, but like Mitchell mentioned, you want someone other than the primary ballhandler to spot up behind the line and open up gaps (preferably on the other side of the court).  Luckily for the Tide, Randolph has been doing that this season, and fellow junior wing Rodney Cooper is okay behind the line, but that’s it.  On the interior balancing out the perimeter shooting and slashing stands Jacobs, a hefty (245 pounds) 6’8″ forward with a alright shooting touch and decent rebounding ability.

Some defensive matchup musings:

– Dee and Randolph will probably draw the assignment against Releford, as they are the two best perimeter defenders on the team and they don’t give up size in this matchup.

– Semaj is then freed up to guard Obasohan or switch out to the taller Randolph (6’5″) or Cooper (6’6″) when Xavier runs three-guard lineups.  Even then, though, Myles might be better suited to guard these lower-usage players, leaving Semaj to handle Obasohan, the only potential playmaker besides Releford.

– Jacobs seems like the perfect defensive matchup for Philmore.

Now, let’s break down the defense; that’s what Alabama is actually good at.  First off, let’s take time for some individual recognition.  Obasohan is one of those rare players who is both a good shot blocker and ball thief, with a block rate ranked 229th and a steal rate ranked 10th.  He’s a 6’1″ guard, so the block rate might actually be crazier all the same.  Releford also is a good ball hawk, ranking 107th on steals.  Reserve junior wing Algie Kay isn’t far behind them on steal rate, coming in at 260th.  And then down low, Jacobs ranks as a solid shot blocker in his own right.  Given all of this on the individual level, it should come as no surprise that the team as a whole ranks 39th on block percentage and 28th on steal percentage.  Xavier will have to be careful with the ball and smart with their shot selection, two things that they haven’t been this season.

However, if Xavier doesn’t get the ball stolen from them before getting inside the arc and doesn’t get their shot slapped back in their face once they get there (no guarantees, remember!), they actually have a decent shot of converting on two-point attempts.  Despite a top 50 block rate, Alabama still ranks only 149th on two-point defense.  On three-point defense, however, they come in at an impressive 6th, holding opponents to 25.7% from the perimeter.

Where are they bad defensively?

– I already mentioned two-point defense being mediocre when they do not physically touch the shot.

– They are also medicore at keeping opponents off the line.  Semaj should be able to take advantage of this by drawing a lot of fouls.

– Like UC, they are much better at offensive rebounding than defensive rebounding.  At 251st, they allow opponents to grab their own misses 34.1% of the time.  In a couple games, Xavier has exhibited the intensity and toughness to take advantage of this.

The story these statistics seem to paint is one where opponents succeed by breaking the perimeter pressure and getting points by drawing fouls instead of blocks or finding opportunities for open shots or layups against a team overplaying the attempted block.  And if the first shot misses?  Crash the offensive glass.

In sum, Alabama is a limited offensive team (like Xavier might be if the ball movement and confident shooting of the UC game doesn’t resemble a future norm), where one player has to both make plays and take the shots himself, with some minor support from a couple others.  The Tide compensate for this on defense, where they pressure the ball and challenge shots, especially on the perimeter, though they seem to overcompensate inside the arc, where their inclination to block shots seems to lead to some good looks or open offensive boards.  They are in a vulnerable position, though, having lost half their games in a tough schedule where they haven’t been able to beat any team in the top 100.  An up-and-down Xavier squad in their first road game of the season could be a good opportunity for the Crimson Tide team that badly needs respectable wins and just wins in general.  Xavier’s long lay-off makes me nervous too, as Alabama recently sharpened their abilities against a really good Wichita State team while the Musketeers lay fallow.

I have to give the edge to the home team, considering the circumstances and the statistical evidence.  It will probably be an ugly lower scoring, defensive affair, as both teams’ defenses are much better than their offenses, and Xavier ranks 210th in tempo while Alabama is much slower at 329th.

Alabama 58  Xavier 53

Of course, I am trying to split the difference between the UC game and the previous games that Xavier played.  While this is a difficult task in itself, it might not even be the right approach.  Maybe a Xavier squad with a strong team identity led by a super-talented star has emerged, one that will still have its pitfalls but in the long run be establishing itself as a strong, competitive team.  This game will go some of the way toward deciding whether that possibility holds any weight, though a win or a loss will not indicate anything conclusive one way or another at this point in the season.

In Preparation for UC

The Crosstown Shootout is upon us!  I will try to keep this short, but here are some points to consider in preparation for the matchup between Xavier and University of Cincinnati.  All stats and rankings that follow are Kenpom-based.  Keep in mind that yes, UC’s schedule so far is abysmal as usual (#339), Xavier is far from lighting the world on fire with theirs (#240).  Both have faced a couple of worthy opponents, but the stats still could be skewed by the weaker competition.  Let’s get started.

1. UC is ranked third in the country in turning over their opponents, at 27.2%.  That’s pretty damn good, no matter the opponent.  Their press is clearly quite effective, as Xavier fans will remember all too well from last year when Semaj Christon was cramping and Dee Davis was forced into turnover after turnover, turning a close game into a blowout early in the second half.  The Bearcats will look to repeat that performance, no doubt, so Xavier must take care of the ball.  A 237^th “best” turnover rate of 19.7% is not too promising.  Dee will have to keep his cool against the press, but Semaj’s low turnover rate of 15.9% can make Xavier fans hopeful that he is prepared to shoulder the burden of breaking the press.
2. UC is also highly ranked in offensive rebounding rate, coming in at 4^th with a rate of 43.4%.  Now that is just obscene.   It is very challenging to hold them to just one shot, as they have four players nationally ranked in that category and another who has been even more successful than any of those four but simply hasn’t accrued enough playing time to qualify.  Xavier’s defensive rebounding has been hit and miss so far this season.  They held Miami (OH) and Evansville to 21% and 22% offensive rebounding, respectively.  Surrendering 47% of Tennessee’s shots back to them, along with 40% of Iowa’s and 31% of Bowling Green’s, was pretty much awful though.   They have to be more disciplined and tougher against UC’s relentless crashing of the offensive glass.
3. On the other end, UC is almost as bad at allowing offensive rebounding (35.5%) as they are good at grabbing offensive rebounds.  Xavier must take advantage of this.  Even if the Musketeers perform well on the glass on defense, UC will still have grabbed more offensive rebounds than any Xavier fan would like.  They have to try to balance that out on the other end; a mediocre offensive rebounding rate of 34.6%, their mark so far this season, just won’t cut it.  Also, rebounding is really the only thing on defense that UC isn’t really good at, so not taking advantage of opportunities on the offensive glass makes success against that defense all the more difficult (#15 in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency).

UC succeeds partly by getting more shot attempts than their opponents, as they don’t shoot well behind the three-point line (35.2%, 126^th), they really don’t shoot well within the arc (47.5%, 210^th), and they don’t get to the free throw line much (38.7% FTA/FGA, 216^th).  The Musketeers need to hold them to one shot per possession, and they need to take care of the ball on offense.

The A10 Tournament

I love this guy.

So here we stand, the beginning of elimination games.  Sure, the Musketeers could end up in the NIT or something like that, and I’d watch.  But, we all know that Xavier expects NCAA tournament appearances at a minimum.  Even in years like this, we still can hope for that until it’s literally impossible.  Does Xavier’s third version of four-games-in-four-days start on Thursday, March 14, at 6:30 pm?  Or do the Musketeers experience an early exit from the A10 tournament, this time with no chance of an at-large bid?

Either way, they are facing a talented but wayward St. Joe’s team.  The Hawks were picked #1 in the preseason A10 polls but instead have finished 8-8 in conference and only one game ahead of the best of the eliminated teams.  To describe their season as a “disappointment” would be an understatement.  They have worst depth that even Xavier and thus have played at a similarly glacial pace, but their first six are an impressive bunch:

– Langston Galloway is a disciplined defender, a steady ballhandler, and an efficient shooter.

– Carl Jones is all of that, only better statistically.  On defense, he just doesn’t get called for fouls.

– Like Galloway and Jones, Ronald Roberts takes care of the ball on the interior, where he shoots a good 53.5% while drawing fouls at a very high rate.  He’s also the team’s leading rebounder in addition to being one of the three key players that contributes to St. Joe’s top 10 block rate of 15.1%.

– C.J. Aiken isn’t as good of a rebounder as Roberts but he shoots the ball even better than him  (63.8% in the interior), although he isn’t nearly as involved in the offense.  Defensively the 6’9″ forward is huge for the Hawks, getting called for only 2.4 fouls per 40 while notching an absurd block rate of 8.8%.

– The final starter, Chris Wilson, isn’t as impressive as the other four, but he is a very disciplined defender (along the level of Jones) and the leading assists man for the team.

– Halil Kanacevic is the 6th man by virtue of being the only bench player that really gets serious minutes.  Xavier fans may recall the impressive game he put together against the Musketeers (15 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists, 4 blocks).  He has been appropiately called a “Swiss Army knife,” as he really can do it all.  He’s a decent shooter inside the arc and rebounds at a high level.  Though Wilson is the leading assists man by a combination of rate and minutes played, Kanacevic actually has the highest assist rate despite playing in the middle.  Defensively he is the third key contributor to the team’s protection of the rim, with a block rate of 6.0%.  One thing he does not do well though is take care of the ball, turning the ball at a rate (30.4%) similar to Kenny Frease at the beginning of his senior season.  What was remarkable (and bad) about the Xavier game it was the only time he did not commit a turnover in a game this season.

So here we are at attempt #2 to stop the Hawk from flapping.  The last time around, the Musketeers were still in control until late in the road game, when they just stopped scoring and the Hawks started raining down some clutch 3s.  Considering it was a gritty defensive matchup, no one really looked good on the Xavier squad.  Semaj shot 8-21 from the field while dishing out only 2 assists to 3 turnovers.  Trav shot 4-8 from the field (2-4 from the line) in a generally quieter outing for him, where he only managed to collect 5 rebounds and ending up fouling out. Robinson was very active on the boards, grabbing 10, but failed to achieve the double-double due to only shooting 3-8 (2-2 from the line).

There were definitely positives from the first game.  As implied before, Xavier was winning until there were only 4 minutes left.  They were good on the boards, crashing the offensive glass at a rate of 39.0% while holding the Hawks to 25.0%.  They took care of the ball, only allowing 12 turnovers.  They held St. Joe’s to 31.0% shooting inside the arc (but 41.7% outside it).  During the game, they forced the Hawks into some bad scoring droughts but just weren’t able to take good advantage of them.  They accomplished all this while Redford had the flue and their one bright light on the offensive end, Justin Martin, developed back spasms and had to sit out most of the second half.

Kenpom’s statistical analysis pretty much calls the game a toss-up (49% chance of Xavier victory).  That, however, is based off the season as a whole, and quite frankly, Xavier looks much better since that last game and the Hawks look much worse.  Before that game St. Joe’s had dropped a game to St. Bonaventure, but they had also recently taken VCU to overtime on the road and lost to Butler only by 6.  Since that game, Fordham is the only team they have beaten on the road, and they lost to UMass, La Salle, SLU, and Charlotte all by double digits.  Xavier, on the other hand, has put together some of their best basketball games lately.

Since the loss at Dayton, Xavier has done pretty well, despite only gong 3-3.  They beat up on Rhode Island before losing a close game to VCU without their starting pont guard Dee Davis for the last third of the game.  If they get past St. Joe’s, that could be an interesting rematch.  They outplayed Memphis and the game was only close due to the Tigers making a series of really stupid 3s.  Their low point was losing to UMass in an uninspired effort but they since have rebuonded from that by beating SLU before dropping a close one on the road to Butler.

St. Joe’s still has enough talent and Xavier still has enough inexperience for the game to not go the Musketeers’ way, but the trends are definitely looking positive for the team from Victory Parkway.  That inexperience could be their downfall, but the talent and the cohesion is there for these Musketeers to make a run, to pull off another four-games-in-four-days miracle.

But, if they don’t win against St. Joe’s or against VCU or another team?  Well, we’ll at least know one thing: The team left it all out there on the court.  And I will always remember the heart that this 2012-2013 squad had.

Butler Preview

On a Pre-Cana retreat right now in preparation for the wedding, so I haven’t really had time to look into anything for this game.  I also won’t be able to watch it unless I can find a replay online to watch later that night.

Notes:

– Butler is running with a walk-on point guard because Rotnei Clarke is definitely not a point guard.  They’ve been succeeding to a degree with that formula, but it has exposed them in games before.  Hopefully Xavier can also exploit that weakness.

– If Dee Davis defends Clarke like he did in the first game against Butler, it will go a long way toward pulling out an upset victory.

– Jeff Robinson blew up against Butler in the last game.  Maybe he will exploit the mismatches again.  Last regular season game of his career.

– The team as a whole matches up really well with Butler.  They just lack experience.

– Hinkle Fieldhouse is a tough, tough place to play in.

– Remember that in the last game Semaj was just coming back from an infection and still couldn’t properly shoot.  He will be able to go all-out this time around.

– This would be an awesome win.  A really tough game to win, but an awesome win.