I want to the Musketeers to deliver this disappointment late tomorrow afternoon. / Photo Dean Hoffmeyer, Richmond Times-Dispatch
Possibly the biggest game of the Musketeers’ regular season (and one of their biggest challenges) looms in front of them tomorrow afternoon. A win here would significantly help their chances of getting that first-round bye in the conference tournament, and heck, they would still be in the race for the #1 seed, however improbable it would be to achieve. Their auto-bid chances improve significantly with that bye, don’t forget. Also, Xavier’s tiny, marginal chance at getting an at-large bid ould also remain alive (I’ll dream until it’s impossible, okay? But that change might come tomorrow afternoon.). So, it’s a huge game, especially because of how tough the opponent is. Except the game at Butler to close the regular season, all other games pale in comparison to this one. If they win it, 5-0 to finish the season is of course still possible, and the possibility of going 4-1 is downright reasonable.
But, it’s VCU. Joel and Brad over at Banners on the Parkway were saying weeks ago to just pencil in a loss at home against the VCU Rams, and just a couple weeks ago, Joel referred to it as a “luxury win.” Honestly I agree with them. Xavier’s probability of winning this home game has hovered around 30% for a couple months now, according to Kenpom, and when you consider how much better VCU matches up with Xavier than vice versa, it just looks worse.
VCU isn’t a really good all-around team, with a mediocre half-court offense and a somewhat bad halfcourt defense, but their “Havoc” full-court press defense is downright remarkable and generally covers up their other flaws. They turn the ball over and steal the ball at a significantly higher rate than any other team in the nation. They force turnovers on 29.0% of possessions, and they specifically steal the ball on 17.4% of possessions. They achieve these amazing statistics while turning the ball over themselves only 17.6% of the time. So, they end up getting a lot more shots that their opponent on average, and the steals frequently turn into easy layups, which contributes to their top 50 two-point percentage.
Now I said that the Rams aren’t really a good all-around team, and it’s true. Xavier in all its mediocrity is better than them in a majority of categories. VCU has a decent three-point defense (#96), but Xavier has a better one (#56). VCU has a pretty terrible two-point defense (#246), while Xavier has an okay one (#128). You know what else is terrible? How high the offensive rebounding rate is for VCU’s opponents (34.7%), especially when compared to Xavier’s 51st best of 28.4%. I will give the Rams’ credit though for an okay block rate (#147) against Xavier’s terrible rate (#279).
On offense, VCU does rebound their own misses at a good rate (38.4%), while Xavier’s rate is only decent (34.5%). Considering Xavier’s much better defensive rebounding rate, though, VCU shouldn’t have the same level of success on the offensive boards as their average. VCU’s effective field goal percentage also is technically better than Xavier’s by a single percentage point, but you have to consider how dependent VCU is on fast break scoring. Xavier’s manages a slightly worse effective field goal percentage than VCU while playing in half-court sets a lot more than them. What does that suggest? VCU’s halfcourt offense is just not that good. As laid out before, their halfcourt defense is pretty bad too.
You should already be able to predict what Xavier needs to do then. Limit turnovers and fast breaks and then force VCU into the halfcourt game on both sides of the ball. Sounds simple, right? Well, “simple” does not mean “easy.” I am not suggesting anything profound, as I am sure this has been the goal of just about every team that has faced the Rams this season. They knew exactly what they needed to do, but most of them still failed to snag a win, because Havoc is that effective.
So what do you do? Put the focus on getting the ball across halfcourt with Dee, Semaj, and a taller player like Martin or Taylor working the ball around the press? Concede a few more turnovers while going bigger and trying to neutralize VCU everywhere else? I would try the former, but Dee and Semaj’s turnover rates this season are not exactly good, and that’s going against normal teams. You have to hope they have good, focused games as ballhandlers, maybe at the expense of energy normally devoted to other aspects of the offense. That could work though, as Xavier’s halfcourt offense can succeed without the two of them dominating the ball, especially since Havoc does not transition well into a halfcourt defensive set at all. The key player for this game has to be Dee Davis then. He (and Semaj) will turn the ball over sometimes against this ridiculously good press and Xavier fans have to accept that. But, if he takes the lead in limiting them to less than their average, Xavier can win this game. The stat has passed around Twitter some as of late, but VCU is undefeated when they force more than 15 turnovers, but they are winless when they don’t reach that magic number. Turning the ball over fewer than 15 times in a game would be a mighty tall task for a Xavier squad that averages 13 a game against normal competition, but it’s not crazy. If Davis and Christon both keep turnovers at 4 or less, then the team has probably succeeded, as they are usually responsible for the vasty majority of their team’s turnovers.
Where does Xavier’s season head from here? So much is riding on which way tomorrow afternoon’s game turns. Will that nonconference game against Memphis have some import? Will the home matchup against a hot SLU team (the class of the A10 right now, in my opinion) matter significantly for the standings? Will the stakes be high for the game at Butler to end the season? All those questions are significantly affected by whether or not Xavier can pull a win out of the potential chaos that will occur tomorrow.
From Staak to Mack 