NCAA Tournament: Xavier vs. NC State

One of the most talented players to ever come through Xavier will get his chance in the Dance (USA Today Sports Images)

So Xavier gets the play-in game.  I was hoping it wouldn’t happen, I thought they were more likely to be just above it, but nevertheless, it’s a berth in the NCAA Tournament.  Also, Xavier was apparently second-to-last in the S-curve.  They will be up against the NC State Wolfpack, the very last at-large team to receive a ticket to the Dance, and a surprise pick, I might add.  The next round would be against 5-seeded SLU, who has an awesome defense and a bad offense but has been dropping fast lately.  A potential Round of 32 matchup would be Louisville.  That’s not fun, even if they built their Kenpom profile in large part off of cupcakes.

The Kenpom #66 team receiving a bid is one of the big head-scratchers on Selection Sunday next to #50 BYU receiving a 10 seed after a season-ending injury to star guard Kyle Collingsworth and #2 Louisville receiving a 4 seed.  It makes more sense when you realize that this Selection Committee didn’t make much use of Kenpom and Sagarin when making their picks (cleaving pretty closely to RPI) after two straight seasons of giving a lot of respect to these metrics when Mike Bobinski was vice-chair and chair.  This Committee also gave a lot of credit for scheduling tough in the non-conference slate (first thing Wellman said about SMU’s exclusion was that they did the exact opposite) and they also gave a lot of credit for scheduling road games.  I assumed crappy non-conference schedules and a lack of road games would hurt some teams:  SMU receiving an NIT bid, Iowa having to go to the play-in game, Louisville receiving a lower seed (but not a 4!).  I didn’t think they would reward teams so much in seeding for scheduling tough and going on the road more, which they clearly did with BYU and some A10 teams.  The Selection Committee was rather inconsistent in application, though, with Kansas State (OOC SOS 147 and zero OOC road games) receiving a 9 seed, for example.

That’s enough of that, though.  I’m a little limited on time, and I wanted to put together some things for tonight’s game.  I don’t think NC State was the most deserving pick, but that doesn’t mean they are awful.  They are actually a pretty good team, albeit inconsistent, much like Xavier.  Xavier should be favored in this game, but it could definitely be a tough one, and it all starts with:

TJ Warren

Warren was awarded ACC Player of the Year and was quite deserving of the award.  Sidenote:  Jay Bilas wined about him receiving this award over Marcus Paige or Jabari Parker because Warren had led an NIT team.  Now that it’s a tournament team, though, apparently NC State should easily handle both Xavier and then SLU in the next round.  Thanks, Bilas, for continuing to be a jackass.  Back to Warren, he is a prolific scorer as a power wing (6’8″, 233 pounds), excelling in the mid-range and at the rim while being a rather poor perimeter shooter (27.7%) but capable of some decent shooting nights from deep, which hopefully doesn’t include tonight.  The Wolfpack lean on him heavily, as his usage rate of 33.6% ranks 8th in the country and his shot rate of 37.1% ranks 4th.  But, he’s not a volume shooter.  He’s actually rather efficient, with an offensive rating of 114.6 and an effective field goal percentage of 55.0%, and he’s good at not turning the ball over either (12.3%).  While playing against ACC competition, Warren also has a 17-game streak of scoring 20 points or more, which started after Virginia held him to 4 points.  UVA employs the packline like Xavier, but they are much better at it, as it has carried them to a 1 seed in the tournament.

Xavier won’t be able to outright stop Warren, just like they couldn’t lockdown Doug McDermott.  They can only hope to make it harder on him to score, while trying to stop his teammates from making substantial contributions.  Or maybe they can just get him into foul trouble, as he has had ten games with at least 4 fouls spread out across the entire season.  Another thing that Warren is really good at crashing the glass, grabbing 10.9% of his team’s misses (which are probably his own a lot of the time).  He’s not alone in that department:

Controlling the Glass

NC State is not dominating on the offensive glass but they are definitely good, grabbing 34.8% of their own misses, good for 64th in the country.  Along with Warren, 6’8″ Lennard Freeman (10.9%) and 7’1 Jordan Vandenberg (9.4%) also make contributions.  Luckily for Xavier, this is something they have the personnel to counteract.  The Musketeers rank 54th in defensive rebounding, holding opponents to 28.8%.  Yes, there’s a question of whether Matt Stainbrook, second best in the Big East in rebounds, will be fully healthy, but that hurts Xavier more elsewhere than here.  Stainbrook has a defensive rebounding rate of 23.9%, but James Farr is actually better at 24.7% and Jalen Reynolds grabs 19.0% of opponents’ misses.  Isaiah Philmore (14.4%) and Erik Stenger (14.9%) are weaker in this department, but overall Xavier does have the personnel to generally hold NC State to one shot.  Justin Martin on the wing also grabs 17.0% of opponents’ misses, which is key, as he will often be guarding Warren.

On the other end, Xavier has a definite advantage.  Other than Freeman (17.8%) and freshman reserve 6’9″ Kyle Washington (17.7%), NC State simply does not box out, which is just one part of their overall lack of defensive discipline.  Only 13 teams in all of Division I allow opponents to grab more of their misses than the Wolfpack (36.3%).  That’s a higher rate than Xavier’s 86th average (34.1%), which is a decent mark in itself.  Yes, Stainbrook hauls in an impressive 11.9% of Xavier’s misses, but this rate actually puts him at 3rd on the squad, behind Reynolds (15.7%) and Farr (12.9%) and ahead of Philmore (10.0%).  Philmore has also been grabbing offensive boards at a higher rate than Stainbrook after an awful first third of the season (10 in 11 games), as he has grabbed 54 in 22 games since then.  So, the still recovering center, who might only be able to get limited minutes, is only the 4th best big in a category where Xavier can really exploit NC State.

Keep an eye on the rebounding rates tonight.  Xavier will probably give up a few more offensive boards than they’d like, but they should be able to dominate on the offensive glass.  If they aren’t, that could spell trouble for the Musketeers.

Three-point Shooting

NC State has only one shooter worth mentioning, 6’5″ Ralston Turner, who makes threes at a 36.7% average.  That’s a good mark, but he gets there in a streaky fashion.  If he’s on, he’s killing you.  If he’s off, he’s killing NC State, though he’ll at least still stretch the defense out.  A key to the game will be stopping him, because the Wolfpack need support for Warren coming from somewhere, and Turner is one of the best options.  Other than Turner, no one is really good from 3, but there are four guys between 23% and 28%.  Xavier cannot allow them to get wide-open looks and needs to at least challenge them on any shot attempts from deep, but if they do that job well, NC State won’t even attempt many three-point shots and will have to turn to Turner for their only perimeter shooting.  It’s why they rank 339th in the ratio of three-point attempts to field-goal attempts.

On the other end, three-point defense is the only thing that the Wolfpack are actually decent at, holding opponents to 32.0% (61st).  This isn’t a major part of Xavier’s game, as they are only a little ahead of NC State in ratio of attempts at 310th.  Whereas NC State as a team is just awful from deep (30.3%, 325th), Xavier has scouted itself well and is just selective (35.4%, 125th).  Justin Martin has become the team’s only consistent three-point option, shooting 39.1% on the season and 43.0% in conference play.  Dee Davis is the only other regular option (37.3%), and he’s streaky like Turner.  I still have no idea what happened to James Farr (38.0%) and Myles Davis (33.9%), especially since Farr was shooting 37.5% in the first half of conference play.

Martin continuing to be Martin and some timely shots from his teammates could be important in this game, but Xavier will spend more time slashing to the basket or working the ball through the bigs.  NC State’s two-point defense (47.1%) only ranks 122nd, playing to Xavier’s strengths (51.5%, 58th).

Free Throws

This is an area where Xavier should have a big advantage.  The Wolfpack send players to the line way too much, with opponents shooting 43.1% as many free-throws as they do field goals (233rd).  Xavier is by no means good at drawing fouls, with a rate of 42.0% (122nd), but they are clearly better at getting to the line than NC State is at preventing opponents from doing so.  Also, Semaj Christon has a personal FT rate of 57.0%, though after a well-known early-season slump, he’s only shooting 67.0% on the season.  Isaiah Philmore is even better at getting to the line (70.2% FT rate), converting attempts at a 70.5% rate.  The team as a whole is shooting better than their 68.8% average, as they joined Semaj in that early season slump, so they should be able to get a lot of points at the free throw line.

NC State is even worse at getting to the line than stopping their opponents from ending up there, with a FT rate of 36.4%, 281st in the country.  Warren does draw 6.1 fouls per 40 minutes (133rd), but not enough are on shot attempts, as his FT rate is only 33.3% (The bigger concern here could be if he gets Martin into foul trouble).  Only Desmond Lee has a good FT rate (58.6%, 205th) among players with respectable usage rates.  When NC State gets to the line, most of their team is hovering around 70% or worse, which is why they are shooting 66.1% (296th).  Add this together with Xavier’s advantage on offense, and this should be a game where Xavier makes more free throws than their opponents attempt (like the good old days!).

Semaj Christon

I’m book-ending this post with the two star players (and former roommates at Brewster Academy).  Xavier will have a hard time slowing down Warren, but NC State could find it just as difficult, if not more so, to stop Semaj.  It’s not that Semaj is necessarily better than Warren; they’re both great players.  NC State has really struggled with big, athletic guards, though, as they have no defensive answer, whereas Xavier can somewhat answer Warren with Martin, Philmore, and Reynolds.  Look for Semaj to have a big game slicing through NC State’s weak defense (144th in adjusted defensive efficiency).

So the key are:

– Slow down Warren, preventing his teammates from getting involved

– Do a decent job on the defensive glass and dominate the offensive glass

– Challenge the poor three-point shooters and lockdown Turner, while looking for timely shots on the other end.

– Make more free throws than NC State attempts

– Let Semaj go to work

Let’s hope Xavier gets an opportunity to play SLU!