Big East Tournament Semi-Finals: Xavier vs. Creighton

I think we’ve determined that Doug McDermott is pretty good at the game of basketball. (Lenny Ignelzi, AP Photo)

Since Xavier has virtually secured a tournament bid, fans can rest easy tonight, a loss tonight versus a top 10 team being very understandable in the Selection Committee’s eyes.  The team, however, might take a different perspective.  You don’t get to the high Division 1 level as a player or as a coach without being highly competitive.  In the moment of the game, a loss is never “okay” or “understandable.”  Now that a tournament appearance is pretty much guaranteed, the team is thinking about a championship (Okay, a lot of fans are too).  The Xavier Musketeers are two games away from taking home the first trophy of the new version of the Big East Tournament.  With Villanova surprised by Seton Hall in the quarterfinals, the nightmare matchup has been eliminated and the tougher game comes tonight against the 2-seed, Creighton. The winner will face Providence or Seton Hall for a chance to win the Big East title (I still give credit to Villanova for winning THE Big East title, the regular season one, but the tournament title is a nice consolation prize).

After splitting the regular-season games with the Bluejays by equal margins, this is an intriguing matchup.  Creighton fans will tell you that they do not match up well with Xavier, which is true:  Semaj is extremely difficult for them (or anyone) to stop and though they can pull Xavier’s bigs out behind the three-point line, they can’t match their size and physicality on the other side of the ball.  Make no bones about it, Creighton is clearly the superior team and their historically good offense could be carrying them to a Final Four in a couple weeks, but I am fairly satisfied with this match-up (I mean, Jesus, Seton Hall on the other side of the bracket somehow beat Xavier twice!).  Also, you can’t help but like the team or their fans.  It should be a hell of a game.

First off, you don’t “stop” Doug McDermott (unless you’re George Washington, apparently).  He could end up being as high as #2 on the D1 all-time scorers list, and that doesn’t occur by accident,, as he can get buckets pretty much anywhere on the court.  You just try to make life difficult for him, which Xavier did in the return game at Cintas.  Yes, he put up 27 points, but Justin Martin, et. al., but he was only moderately efficient, as opposed to his usual highly efficient.  Because of how much they harried him while not losing his teammates, he also couldn’t create very effectively, notching only two assists to five turnovers.  None of his teammates scored in double digits in that encounter, and their failure to stop anyone from Xavier on the other side led to a Musketeer win.

That’s better than the game in Omaha.  Four of McDermott’s teammates scored in double figures, as Xavier was stuck between trying to stop him and trying to hold them in check and thus failed at both.  Ethan Wragge’s 35-foot three-pointers (some contested!) were particularly back-breaking, but Austin Chatman, Jahenns Manigat, and Devin Brooks all scored effectively, especially from deep, as they are the perfect role players to the best player in the nation.

Luckily, Xavier found the formula for Creighton in that second game, but undoubtedly the Bluejays will be trying to figure out how to work around that.  Wragge needs to be facemasked again, as his three-point shooting can be such a momentum changer, but the defense cannot play off the other excellent shooters in an attempt to stop McDermott.  To use a common phrase, they need to “let him get his,” because his teammates cannot get a lot of points on their own, unless the defense focuses too much on him.  Transition defense is particularly important.  Like they did in the game at Cintas, Xavier needs to fan out on shooters, as Creighton’s guards are more often probing the defense when they drive into the lane rather than directly trying to score, looking for help defense to come off the shooters, so they can kick the ball out for a three.  Defending Creighton does not simply involve defending the three-point line, though.  Villanova, whose defense focuses on forcing teams to beat them from three-point range, got burned by a 22-35 (60.0%) barrage from deep in the first meeting.  They focused on defending the three in the next game and proceeded to give up plenty of points inside the arc (25-38, 65.8%) and at the free throw line (24-26, 92.3%).  In their game last night against Marquette, Xavier did a good job of defending the three without giving up too much, their major flaw being allowing athletic slashers to cut into the lane for close attempts.  Creighton does not have much in the way of athleticism, and their interior scoring is not based much off dribble-drives, so a similar defensive performance could net similar results.  That is, provided that Dougie McBuckets doesn’t do against Xavier what he did against DePaul.  What is a little disheartening is that even against good defense, McDermott has the ability to win a game all by himself.

From One Bird to Another

There’s a reason the Bluejay looks happier than the Golden Eagle.  The Bluejay is watching a much better team.

Sorry for the delay in posting after Xavier beat the Golden Eagles!  It was a wonderful victory, but the extended period of free time demanded for writing articles was instead taken up by getting prepared at the beginning of the semester of classes.  I’m going to give a rundown of the Marquette game, summing up the game in general and taking a look at the major points in my preview, before turning to a preview of the Creighton Bluejays, who the Musketeers face in Omaha.

First off, I’m an idiot.  I predicted “an ugly defensive grudge match” (and repeated it too in that post!), but that couldn’t be further from the truth in this game.  Supposedly, these two teams were supposed to put really good defenses on the court while their offense wasn’t quite as good.  Instead, Xavier scored an astounding 1.28 points per possession, while Marquette “only” managed 1.18 points per possession.  The outcome was so different from pregame expectations that Xavier’s offensive efficiency is now ranked higher (#35, up about 30 spots) than their defensive efficiency (#48, down about 20 spots).  Nearly everyone on both sides had an offensive rating over 100.  Let’s see how it went on my list of “Things to Watch Out For” from the game:

Davante Gardner vs. Matt Stainbrook

This didn’t quite work out like planned.  Stainbrook picked up 2 quick fouls in the first five minutes of the game and sat the rest of the half (credit to what the Xavier frontline did without him).  He wasn’t bad when he got back in and at times dictated his will, just like in previous games, but it wasn’t quite a dominant performance offensively.  He managed the following line:  7 points (2-5 FG/3-4 FT), 8 rebounds (3 offensive), 3 assists, 3 turnovers, 1 block.  On the glass, he was his usual dominant self, even if he wasn’t able to score as much as in other games.  Defensively he did a solid job against whoever he faced, but Davante Gardner in particular (unsurprisingly) proved to be a load in the paint.

Gardner held up his end of this matchup on the offensive end.  He scored 19 points on a solid 7 of 14 shooting while making 5 of 6 from the line.  At times Marquette would just get him the ball in the paint and he would somehow find a way to score despite the tight defense.  He took some questionable jump shots, and the announcers were right to point out the poor strategy, that he should get back in the post, where he was scoring so effectively.  On the other end, he and his teammates did a good job containing Stainbrook in the post.  Thanks to Stainbrook, et. al., however, he was not able to rebound too effectively, only able to grab 4, though no one else on his team had even that many.  It will be interesting to see how this matchup of two of the conference’s best bigs plays out when they meet again up in Milwaukee.  In this saga, the final tally is:

Scoring:  Advantage, Gardner / Defense:  Even / Rebounding:   Advantage, Stainbrook

Xavier’s Offensive Consistency

Xavier’s offense dominated Marquette’s defense, as I mentioned before.  Scoring 1.28 points per possession?  Ridiculous.  The offense flowed smoothly and everyone got involved.  The team’s 58.3% A/FGM mark was steady with their very respectable average, and this sharing allowed them to shoot 54.5% from inside the arc, 46.2% from outside the arc, and 78.0% from the foul line while attempting 41 shots (31 before the foul-fest in the last 44 seconds).  The Musketeers got themselves good looks on jump shots and were able to draw fouls regularly when they drove inside.  Their 12 turnovers (17.9% rate) were the one offensive blemish in an otherwise excellent night.

What about the individual performances?  Stainbrook having to go to the bench and only playing half the game in the end proved to be no problem.  James Farr lit up the Golden Eagles in his limited playing time on a perfect shooting night from the field:  3-3 on two-pointers and 1-1 on three-pointers for 10 points, including a vicious putback dunk.  Isaiah Philmore put together another low-usage high-efficiency game, making 3 of his 4 shots from the field and another 3 of 4 from the line to once again fall just short of double digits.  Dee Davis had 6 assists to 1 turnover, and though he didn’t shoot well from the field (1-5/1-3), he nailed 8 of 9 free throws to help secure the win.  Justin Martin put together another great offensive performance, scoring 15 points on the following shooting line:  4-6/1-3/4-4.  He was constantly challenging the offense, playing aggressively, and sliding into the seams in the defense, like on one of Semaj Christon’s drives to the basket where Martin was waiting in the gap for the defense to collapse on Semaj.  They did, Semaj passed it off to Martin, and he drove in for the easy lay-in.  This needs to be said:  Semaj is starting to consistently look for Martin in the offense.  With all the options on the team, the team’s assists man and star player is looking for the enigmatic small forward to score.  That’s confidence for you.

Now let’s talk about Semaj’s day.  It was succinctly described by one message board poster:  “28 POINTS ON 10 SHOTS!”  Semaj managed only 2 assists (and his first turnover in three weeks!) because he was able to score so effectively himself up against a purportedly good defense.  This was hands-down the best game of his college career.  He was 5 of 7 on two-point field goals and 3-3 from three-point range.  For a player criticized for his shooting, those three-pointers stand out.  The first was a catch-and-shoot basket on the wing after he was demanding the ball.  The next two?  Marquette had tied the game 69-69 with less than 5 minutes to play after coming back from an 11-point deficit.  Semaj responded on the other side by pulling up for a three-point shot on the wing well behind the line and nailing it as the shot clock was running down.  Marquette missed a jumper on the other end, and after a TV timeout, Semaj was heavily guarded on the same wing as the last two attempts with the shot clock once again running down.  He created some space with the dribble and then turned to sink the heavily contested pull-up shot.  It was just remarkable shooting and incredible confidence from a player who hesitated to shoot from three-point range for most of his career.  Those threes put Xavier up by 6 and the Musketeers kept the lead through the rest of the game.

Battle of the Boards

Since Marquette’s offense was also lighting it up, especially from 3 (11-27), Xavier’s offense alone would not guarantee the win.  That’s okay, though, because they dominated the glass by a 39-20 margin.  The Musketeers grabbed 44.0% of their own misses while holding the Golden Eagles to only 17.6% of theirs.  That is a hard margin for any team to overcome and it helped Xavier secure the game.  As usual this season, the rebounding was a team effort.  Six players grabbed at least one offensive rebound, led by Stainbrook with 3 in just 22 minutes and Farr with 2 in just 12 minutes.  Dee actually managed to grab 2 himself on the offensive end to continue Xavier’s possession.  On the defensive end, they held Marquette to one shot through that same team effort.  Martin picked up 7 defensive rebounds, probably helped by his need to play a few more minutes than normal at the 4 this game, but his rebounding from the wing has helped Xavier to win every battle of the glass since the Bowling Green game.  Stainbrook picked up another 5 on this end in his limited time, and Jalen Reynolds picked up 5 defensive rebounds in just 13 minutes.  The game seems to be slowing down for Reynolds, as he finally played some quality minutes this season, keeping Erik Stenger (3 minutes) generally on the bench despite the Stain’s foul trouble and playing more minutes than Farr for the first time this season despite Farr having a really good offensive game.

The defense could have been better, admittedly, but sometimes teams just make shots.  Xavier packed it in against Marquette to neutralize their athleticism and the strong play from their bigs because they were supposed to be (and really, they are) a bad shooting team.  The Golden Eagles defied the scouting report on them and hoisted up and made more shots from deep than they have in any game this season.  Xavier kept packing it in despite the shooting performance because (1) it was unlikely that they would stay that hot and (2) spreading out the defense would open opportunities for Marquette’s stronger options inside.  They did stay that hot from 3, though, but Xavier’s offense was so efficient and their work on the glass so dominant that they managed to secure the win.

On to Omaha!

Xavier is up against the number one offense in the country playing on their home floor in front of a packed house.  Previous Xavier squads became familiar with this setting and had gone up there and lost to lesser squads.  This time, though, the Bluejays are really, really good.  They complement that elite offense with a good defense, one that holds opponents to just one shot, doesn’t send opponents to the line, and does a decent job of contesting shots.  Points will not come easy against this smart, disciplined crew.  If Xavier can overcome Creighton’s strong defensive rebounding to get second-chance points, it would go a long way toward victory.

The offense though is the showcase here, so I’ll turn to that.  For starters, the Bluejays are good at holding onto the ball but mediocre at getting offensive rebounds, so they will at least get that first shot , just not the second (if Xavier’s toughness on the glass continues).  Also, they don’t get to the line much at all compared to other schools, holding a FTA/FGA ratio of 32.2%, so Xavier’s defense must be smart and not give them free trips, because they usually aren’t looking for them with all their jump shots.  They are so efficient because they shoot so well and because they are patient, waiting to find the best look.  Their three-point percentage is 43.3%, the best in the nation, and they are good within the arc too at 52.5%, for an overall effective field goal percentage of 58.1%.  That’s tough to defend against, especially the three-point shot.

And what makes it tougher?  National Player of the Year candidate Doug McDermott gets buckets.  The 6’8” forward (their biggest player) has one of the highest usage rates in the country at 32.5% and ranks even higher on percentage of team’s shots when on the floor, 35.9%.  It’s okay that he’s the guy they go to so often, because he doesn’t turn it over before the shot and his true shooting percentage is 61.7%.  That is made possible through a 51.2% mark on two-pointers, 42.9% on threes, and 90.6% from the line.  He actually draws fouls at a really good rate, 7.0 per 40 minutes, but he himself rarely gets into foul trouble (2.2 called per 40 minutes), the recent DePaul blowout being one of the lone exceptions.  McDermott is such a prolific scorer that his 19 points against DePaul is tied for his second lowest mark this season.  Even with his sprained AC joint in his right shoulder, he will be tough for Xavier to stop.

Martin could definitely see time guarding him, as Martin’s weakness is lateral quickness, which quick perimeter players exploit.  McDermott is much more savvy than quick, so Martin’s physical deficiency won’t be exposed but he has to play smart.  Philmore could see time defending him too, and he would be fairly effective guarding the All-American in the post, but he isn’t a very good defender at the three-point line.  Xavier probably won’t be able to employ their same strategy against Creighton as they did against Butler to lock down Dunham, because the role players on the team are such good, smart shooters that overplaying McDermott could prove fatal.  In the end, you don’t really lockdown Doug McDermott (unless you’re George Washington, I suppose); you just pray you can contain him while his role players do minimal damage.  Speaking of role players, Grant Gibbs will be out for about a month with a dislocated kneecap.  Truthfully, the 6th-year senior wing is more than just a role player.  The team’s glue guy and an efficient scorer when called upon, he is one of the team’s leading assists men, and the offense often runs through him a la Stainbrook to allow McDermott to go to work off the ball.  His absence will hurt, though key reserve guard Devin Brooks, whose assist rate is actually higher than Gibbs’, could prove to be a vital player to fill that void.

Things I’m Wondering About:

How will Creighton guard Semaj?  The sophomore guard has been on an absolutely tear, establishing himself as possibly one of the best point guards in the country and justifying the talk of the NBA.  He is both highly athletic and highly skilled, a combination that could prove challenging for Creighton’s smart and cohesive yet non-athletic defense.  His three-point shooting of late has just made it more challenging, because in a small sample size, he’s at least giving the suggestion that he will punish you if you play off of him and pack it in.  And there’s probably something to that, not necessarily at his 45.5% clip so far, but it does not seem wise to let Semaj shoot open three-pointers.  Will the Bluejays trap and double-team him?  With how the other Musketeers are playing, that could be very risky.  Will they play something like a box-and-1 in order to pressure him while keeping it packed in?  Better hope this is a poor night for Xavier’s three-point shooting.  Will they play him straight up and just try to limit him?  Might be the best option.

How will defensive matchups in general work?  In terms of size, these are very different teams, which will make for some crazy matchups.  Semaj and McDermott when they’re on offense I already mentioned.  McDermott is the team’s biggest starter, but I can’t imagine him guarding Stainbrook on defense.  His teammate, 6’7” 225-lb Ethan Wragge, doesn’t seem to be a much better option.  Bench player 6’11” 230-lb Will Artino could see more time, because it seems like Stainbrook would have a field day against the starters whenever he can get space.  On the other side, though, who will the Big Stain guard?  Or who will Philmore or Farr guard, for that matter?  Creighton plays a bunch of wings, with Wragge and 6’9” 245-lb Zach Hanson (6.7mpg) as the only more traditional bigs on the team.  It should make for a lot of anxiety for both coaches.

Can Xavier win or at least play tough in a hostile road game against a really good opponent?  Alabama was the one road game Xavier has played this year.  The Crimson Tide are only a decent team, though, and I’m not sure how many SEC fans are aware that basketball exists before football season Is over.  It was a great road scalp to pick up, but the atmosphere (and the opponent) just doesn’t compare to what Xavier will face tomorrow night.  If they lose this game by 10 (the starting Vegas line), no one would be surprised.  But, they’ve been playing very well, both on defense (okay, ignore the Marquette aberration) and on offense, with everyone sharing the ball and scoring at a decent clip.  They could win this game, and it would be huge for both conference standings and the tournament resume.  I’m interested to see what happens, and I honestly don’t know what to expect.

Big East Primer, Part 3: Tournament Capsules

Can Marquette overcome the disappointing non-conference season to secure an at-large bid? (Getty Images/CollegeBasketballTalk.NBCSports.com)

In the last two installments of this three-part series, I covered first the high-upside teams and then the low-upside teams in the Big East.  Now I turn to each team’s current tournament resume, going in order of their projected RPI (I’ll list the three most likely).  In a true round-robin format, the projected RPI is important to keep in mind, as every team will have multiple opportunities for good or decent wins, but the teams that have already had success in the non-conference don’t have to worry as much about it (I’m looking at you, Villanova).  For the purpose of labeling the quality of wins, I will also use projected RPI, not current RPI, as mid-season RPI numbers are often not the best.  Only one game in, conference records aren’t that helpful yet, so I will list teams’ projected record.

When I mention opponents’ ranks, there will be some duplicates, as the ranks are projections that I rounded to the nearest whole number.  Also, keep in mind that projected RPIs are based off probabilities and thus subject to fluctuation.  Finally, I will mark particularly good qualities of a resume in green and particularly bad qualities in red, with everything else being left normal.

7/11/15                    VILLANOVA

Current Record:  12-1
Projected Conference Record:  14-4
Expected OOC SOS:  55 (11-1, projected 12-1 with game vs. Big 5 rival #115 Temple)

Kenpom Rank:  8
Sagarin Rank:  7

Record vs. 1-25:  2-1 (2 neutral wins, 1 road loss)
Record vs. 26-50:  0-0
Record vs. 51-100:  3-0 (1 home win, 2 road wins)
Record vs. 101-200:  4-0 (3 home wins, 1 neutral win)
Record vs. 201+:  3-0 (3 home wins)

2 good wins, 0 bad losses

Villanova is as close to a lock for the NCAA tournament as you can get, after going nearly undefeated against a good schedule that involved three top 25 opponents.  They notched top 25 victories on a neutral court against #7 Kansas and #19 Iowa, and the loss to #18 Syracuse at the Carrier Dome is understandable.  That being said, they are still poised to do more.  Projected 14-4 overall in the conference (escaping with an overtime win at Butler helped), they are favored to win every individual game against conference foes except @Creighton.  With the Wildcats’ impressive non-conference performance, other teams with reasonable tournament hopes could really benefit from a win against them, but Villanova will be disinclined to offer charity while in pursuit of one of the top seeds.

19/24/30                    CREIGHTON

Current Record:  11-2
Projected Conference Record:  13-5
Expected OOC SOS:  156 (10-2)

Kenpom Rank:  14
Sagarin Rank:  14

Record vs. 1-25:  0-0
Record vs. 26-50:  0-1 (1 neutral loss)
Record vs. 51-100:  4-1 (2 home wins, 1 neutral win, 1 road win, 1 neutral loss)
Record vs. 101-200:  3-0 (2 home wins, 1 road win)
Record vs. 201+:  4-0 (4 home wins)

0 good wins, 0 bad losses (Note:  They have two wins and a loss against opponents with a good chance of breaking into the top 50)

Creighton’s SOS in the non-conference impresses no one, though a 10-2 record involving 5 top 100 non-conference opponents is pretty good.  They have notched some solid wins so far, headlined by a neutral court victory over #55 Arizona State and a home court victory over #52 California.  Plus, the conference schedule should improve their SOS to a level of respectability.  Where they really stand out is advanced metrics.  These contribute to a team’s resume, but more importantly, they signify a good probability of future success.   The Big East has plenty of opportunities for strong competition, and if Creighton comes close to their projected record, they will have collected some good wins for the tournament resume by the end.

29/36/45                    GEORGETOWN

Current Record:  9-3
Projected Conference Record:  11-7
Expected OOC SOS:  25 (8-3, projected 8-4 with neutral game vs. #16 Michigan State)

Kenpom Rank:  33
Sagarin Rank:  32

Record vs. 1-25:  0-2 (1 neutral loss, 1 road loss)
Record vs. 26-50:  1-0 (1 neutral win)
Record vs. 51-100:  1-0 (1 neutral win)
Record vs. 101-200:  3-1 (3 home wins, 1 neutral loss)
Record vs. 201+:  4-0 (4 home wins)

1 good win, 1 bad loss

Georgetown has played a pretty tough non-conference SOS, and it has not gone that well.  They aren’t in as bad of shape as some perceive it, but they definitely haven’t met expectations (and the loss to #180 Northeastern will not help their resume).  They got outplayed by their two top 25 opponents, #16 Oregon and #7 Kansas, but they did manage to notch a good win against #26 VCU.  Their efficiency statistics are also solid, suggesting that they might be able to gather some more good wins in the second half of the season.  The 11-7 finish projected for them would be a good mark, and they do still have a great opportunity against Michigan State in their future.  All in all, they have a pretty good chance at an at-large bid.

38/47/57                    XAVIER

Current Record:  11-3
Projected Conference Record:  10-8
Expected OOC SOS:  80 (10-3)

Kenpom Rank:  35
Sagarin Rank:  38

Record vs. 1-25:  0-1 (1 neutral loss)
Record vs. 26-50:  2-1 (1 home win, 1 neutral win, 1 neutral loss)
Record vs. 51-100:  1-0 (1 road win)
Record vs. 101-200:  4-1 (4 home wins, 1 neutral loss)
Record vs 201:  3-0 (3 home wins)

2 good wins, 1 bad loss

Xavier is undefeated on shore.  You heard that right.  They lost all three of their games in the Battle 4 Atlantis, falling to #19 Iowa, #40 Tennessee, and #109 USC.  Before making that trip, though, they did secure a good home win against Tennessee, and after returning, they claimed another against #41 Cincinnati on a neutral court.  The Musketeers have encountered some bad luck when it comes to their SOS, as none of their Kenpom top 100 opponents are projected to finish in the RPI as well as their Kenpom ranking would suggest (#85 Wake Forest being projected 115.7 in the RPI being the most notorious example).  It is what it is, though, and their non-conference SOS is still mildly respectable.  The Musketeers have set themselves up well for the conference schedules despite the Atlantis Catastrophe.  They are projected 10-8, which, in a league of a bunch of solid-to-good teams, would lead to a number of resume-worthy wins and probably enough for a tournament bid.

56/67/79                    BUTLER

Current Record:  9-3
Projected Conference Record:  8-10
Expected OOC SOS:  175 (9-2)

Kenpom Rank:  52
Sagarin Rank:  58

Record vs. 1-25:  0-2 (1 neutral loss, 1 road loss)
Record vs. 26-50:  0-1 (1 neutral loss)
Record vs. 51-100:  1-0 (1 home win)
Record vs. 101-200:  4-0 (1 home win, 2 neutral wins, 1 road win)
Record vs. 201+:  4-0 (3 home wins, 1 road win)

0 good wins, 0 bad loss

Butler has what no one wants:  missed opportunities against every good team they have played.  They also have what everyone wants:  no bad losses.  They lost by two in regulation to #8 Oklahoma State on a neutral court.  They followed that up the next night by losing in overtime to #41 LSU on the same neutral floor.  And just a few days ago, they dealt with another missed opportunity after an overtime home loss to #11 Villanova.  The only team worth mentioning that they have beat is #76 Princeton at home, hardly the win you want to hang your hat on, though the Bulldogs will definitely have more opportunities in their conference schedule.  People often praise Butler for playing these good teams close, but they’ve also let some bad teams keep it interesting through to the end.  They needed overtime to beat #121 Vanderbilt at home.   They went on the road to play #268 Ball State and won by only one.  They needed free throws on a neutral court to seal the deal against #143 Washington State.  I don’t dislike Butler in any way (like some Xavier fans do).  I only mention these to give perspective to what Butler has done this year.  They’ve been just as lucky in avoiding bad losses as they’ve been unlucky in missing good wins.  There’s a reason they’re only ranked #52 by Kenpom, despite losing by only seven points combined to Kenpom’s 4th, 8th, and 36th best teams.  They play to their competition, whether good, bad, or mediocre, which honestly should make for some really interesting basketball in this conference schedule.  They’re projected 8-10, which won’t be good enough to make the tournament.  With their ability to keep any game close, who knows what will actually happen?  At this point, though, they haven’t really done anything for their tournament resume, and the weak non-conference SOS and the poor advanced metrics rankings by Kenpom and Sagarin will not help them much at all.

64/76/88                    ST. JOHN’S

Current Record:  9-4
Projected Conference Record:  8-10
Expected OOC SOS:  104 (9-3, projected 10-3 with home game vs. #210 Dartmouth)

Kenpom Rank:  61
Sagarin Rank:  69

Record vs. 1-25:  0-2 (neutral loss, home loss)
Record vs. 26-50:  0-1 (road loss)
Record vs. 51-100:  0-0
Record vs. 101-200:  6-1 (4 home wins, 2 neutral wins, 1 neutral loss)
Record vs. 201+:  3-0 (3 home wins)

0 good wins, 1 bad loss (Note:  Penn State has a decent chance of breaking into the top 100)

St. John’s hasn’t defeated a team in the top 106.  That makes a tournament bid to be a bit of a challenge.  The close loss against #18 Syracuse at Madison Square Gardens still has to sting for fans, and the overtime loss to #106 Penn State could hurt on the tournament resume.  Their struggles to put away bad teams efficiently haven’t helped either, leading to their advanced metrics rankings in the 60s, and unlike Butler above them and Marquette below them, they can’t claim even a decent win in the RPI 51 to 100 range.  The underwhelming non-conference strength of schedule isn’t helpful for a potential bubble team either.  Add that all together, and an 8-10 finish is far under what is needed to make the tournament.  As I said in the first part of this series, though, St. John’s is the model for “upside.”  If their impressive collection of talent becomes more cohesive, they have the ability to go on a tear through part of the conference schedule and potentially change their destiny.

67/78/90                    MARQUETTE

Current Record:  8-6
Projected Conference Record:  9-9
Expected OOC SOS:  133 (8-5)

Kenpom Rank:  48
Sagarin Rank:  57

Record vs. 1-25:  0-2 (1 home loss, 1 road loss)
Record vs. 26-50:  0-3 (2 neutral losses, 1 road loss)
Record vs. 51-100:  1-1 (1 neutral win, 1 road loss)
Record vs. 101-200:  0-0 (Seriously, you couldn’t at least schedule better bad teams?)
Record vs. 201+:  7-0 (6 home wins, 1 road win)

0 good wins, 0 bad losses (Note:  George Washington has a decent shot of making the top 50 and could be counted as a good win)

Like Butler, Marquette lost to all the good teams they played (except for a neutral win over a solid #53 George Washington squad).  Unlike Butler, some of those games weren’t even close.  Being blown out by #6 Ohio State is an early season game that Big East fans remember fairly well.  The loss to #6 Wisconsin wasn’t as close as it appears by the score.  Then we just saw them lose big on the road to #26 Creighton.  There have been some close games though.  The Golden Eagles weren’t quite able to catch up to #55 Arizona State on the road after the Sun Devils built an early lead.  They made it back into the game on a neutral floor against #27 San Diego State, only to falter toward the end.  They built a decent lead on #39 New Mexico, only to give it up, then regain it, then fade down the stretch.  This Marquette squad certainly had opportunities, like Butler, but they also had twice as many losses total.  To their credit, though, they more easily put away bad teams (like the Wisconsin game, some games weren’t as close as they appeared).  Still, it’s difficult to build a resume with that many losses, metric rankings only a shade better than Butler’s, and a single solid win.  A 9-9 conference record just won’t be enough, most likely.  They will probably have to win a couple more.

81/94/107                    PROVIDENCE

Current Record:  10-4
Projected Conference Record:  7-11
Expected OOC SOS:  223 (10-3)

Kenpom Rank:  78
Sagarin Rank:  79

Record vs. 1-25:  0-2 (neutral loss, road loss)
Record vs. 26-50:  0-0
Record vs. 51-100:  0-1 (neutral loss)
Record vs. 101-200:  6-1 (3 home wins, 2 neutral wins, 1 road win, 1 home loss)
Record vs. 201+:  4-0 (4 home wins)

0 good wins, 1 bad loss

Providence’s best non-conference win is going to end up being #119 La Salle or #121 Vanderbilt, both on a neutral court.  The home loss to #133 Seton Hall to start the conference schedule was also certainly a big blow to their tournament chances.  A non-conference SOS in the 200s is also a serious negative on their resume.  Underwhelming efficiency rankings just contribute to the tale of woe, both as resume lines and as predictors of their chances of boosting their resume.  Obviously, a 7-11 finish in conference won’t be enough to make the tournament (for any team really), but the Friars really have to do much better than that in order to attain a good enough record against top 50 teams.  Most likely, though, their hopes lie in setting up the best possible seeding for the conference tournament, where they can make a desperate run at the automatic bid.

122/138/155                    SETON HALL

Current Record:  10-4
Projected Conference Record:  6-12
Expected OOC SOS:  284 (9-4)

Kenpom Rank:  114
Sagarin Rank:  95

Record vs. 1-25:  0-0
Record vs. 26-50:  0-0
Record vs. 51-100:  1-2 (1 road win, 1 neutral loss, 1 road loss)
Record vs. 101-200:  3-0 (2 home wins, 1 neutral win)
Record vs. 201+:  6-2 (5 home wins, 1 road win, 2 home losses)

0 good wins, 2 really bad losses

Seton Hall is the only team in the Big East who did not have a single non-conference game against a projected top 50 RPI opponent.  #57 Oklahoma is at least close enough to potentially break into the top 50, but the Pirates would still have only one, fewer than any other Big East team.  They also put eight RPI 200+ teams on the docket, more than any of their conference mates (and Marquette, the only team that’s close in numbers, balanced their schedule out with five top 50 opponents).  When a team schedules like this, they’re really taking a chance.  If you only play one decent team, you’re going to have a tough time building a tournament resume.  If you schedule eight RPI 200+ teams (ten RPI 150+ teams), you really increase your chances of a really bad loss.  For starters, your non-conference SOS is going to be in the toilet.  And that doesn’t even take into account how well you now have to perform.  And how did Seton Hall perform?  They lost against the only decent team on their schedule in devastating fashion.  It was an astounding amount of bad luck and choking combined, but still, when you put you put all your eggs in one basket, you make the job really tough.  They then went out and lost to two of those awful teams they had scheduled.  Beat up by injuries, their efficiency statistics aren’t that good either, and a 6-12 conference record projection is pretty fair, considering.  With player coming back from injury, this conference season could be really interesting (especially after they already snagged a road win against Providence), but at this point, the Pirates are looking to position themselves as well as they can seeding-wise in preparation for the conference tournament.

146/163/180                    DEPAUL

Current Record:  8-6
Projected Conference Record:  4-14
Expected OOC SOS:  206 (8-5)

Kenpom Rank:  133
Sagarin Rank:  135

Record vs. 1-25:  0-1 (1 neutral loss)
Record vs. 26-50:  0-2 (1 home loss, 1 road loss)
Record vs. 51-100:  0-2 (1 home loss, 1 neutral loss)
Record vs. 101-200:  3-1 (1 home win, 2 road wins, 1 road loss)
Record vs. 201+:  5-0 (5 home wins)

0 good wins, 1 bad loss

DePaul has performed better than in recent years, and they did schedule some top 50 and top 100 teams, but they’re still the worst team in the conference.  I can’t even imagine them making a desperate run in the Big East Tournament.

Why the Big East is Better than the A10, Part 2: This Season

In this post, I broke down why in team-to-team matchups, the Big East is clearly a better conference than the Atlantic 10 for Xavier (especially as it relates to tournament resume).  That’s even more true if you consider the prestige factor, which helps a lot with TV money and recruiting, but I didn’t even delve into that for the post back in March.

Now, however, there have been Xavier fans asserting that this season specifically, the Atlantic 10 is better than the Big East.  Mike DeCourcy of Sporting News also posed the question of which was better on the national media level, though he at least didn’t reach a conclusion, citing how early it was to really judge (Though the article title does say “Very Possibly.”  Way to go out on a limb, Decourcy).  Over on Xavier Hoops, some fans are expressing their (justified) frustration at how well the A10 is doing this year, right after Xavier leaves.  They are at least sensible enough to know that the Big East is still better, but the original poster in that thread, GoMuskies, aptly put how annoying it is:  “All these years we’re in the league, and the bottom feeders lost to low majors left and right and made us look like shit when it came time to start looking at the RPI. So what happens? We leave, and THIS is the year the A-10 decides to start off 12-1. ”  UMass (UMass!) got off to a 10-0 start, and even Fordham is statistically having their best season since 2008!

Okay, so the A10 is doing well this year, the very moment that it doesn’t help Xavier one iota.  Still, where does the perception come from that the conference is suddenly better than Xavier’s new one, just because they are having a good year?  My theory:  The A10 is doing better than the Big East relative to their respective expectations, so people are unconsciously translating that to doing better in the absolute sense.

Marquette came into the season as one of the headline teams of the conference, only to lose to every good opponent they’ve faced except Kenpom #63 George Washington (Hey, they beat an A10 team!).  This is why they have a Kenpom ranking of 44th but an RPI of 105th.  That’s right; at this moment, a loss to Marquette is a “bad loss.”  We’ve discovered that they can’t shoot the ball worth a damn, leading to a stagnant offense in many games that their good defense can’t always make up for.

Georgetown was another headline team, and the results have been mixed.  The season-opening loss to Oregon on a neutral court was a missed opportunity, but where they are still hurting in the perception department is the loss to Northeastern two games later.  The win over a decent Kansas State and a good VCU team are still a little shrouded in that loss, I think, as people’s opinion of them changed drastically after the Northeastern game (since apparently good teams don’t ever lose to bad teams).  Getting beat up by Kansas, even if they are a really good team, didn’t help, but the Hoyas are still ranked #32 in Kenpom and #54 in the RPI.

Seton Hall seems to be losing players left and right, not to mention two that never showed up on campus in the first place.  Providence is hurting from a season-ending injury to Kris Dunn (though at least he’ll be able to medically redshirt) and the once indefinite but now season-long suspensions of two talented freshmen.  St. John’s hasn’t been bad, but they haven’t looked as good as their talent suggests.  We won’t go over what happened in Atlantis with Xavier, but they’ve looked much better recently.

Meanwhile, UMass had that hot start that I mentioned.  Dayton got a really good win over Gonzaga (though overall they’ve only been okay).  George Washington has had a good season so far (10-1).  SLU hasn’t beat anyone worth mentioning, but they’ve played two really good teams close.  And, some of the bottom-feeders might not be as awful as they normally are.  VCU is the only team that might be failing to meet expectations.

Villanova and Butler are doing much better than preseason expectations, though, but apparently that doesn’t carry as much weight if preseason headliners aren’t doing well.  Never mind that Villanova is doing better than any BE team’s preseason expectations.  If Georgetown and Villanova switched uniforms, the Big East would appear much better, I suppose.  By appearances, then, the Big East seems a little weaker than expected, while the Atlantic 10 is surpising people.  But here in the real world, how good conferences actually are is not based off their performance relative to expectations.  And when you consider performance by itself, the Atlantic 10 just cannot match up to what the Big East has done, plain and simple.  Want data?  Of course you do!  Here we go:

RPI Conference Rank:  Big East 3rd vs. Atlantic Ten 7th

Kenpom:  BE 4th vs. A10 10th

Sagarin:  BE 3rd vs. A10 8th

The aggregate numbers fall overwhelmingly in the BIg East’s favor.  But, wait!  That’s not fair to the A10.  Everyone knows the basement of the conference sucks, but that shouldn’t detract from what the top and the core of the conference are doing.  And that’s true.  So let’s do Kenpom team-by-team matchups, like I did in the first article:

Kenpom:

#5 Villanova vs. #20 UMass – Significant edge BE
#16 Creighton vs. #24 SLU – Solid edge BE (Note: BE #2 is slightly better than A10 #1)
#32 Georgetown vs. #33 VCU – Even
#44 Marquette vs. #58 Dayton – Good edge BE
#46 Xavier vs. #63 – Good edge BE
#53 Butler vs. #70 RIchmond – Good edge BE
#55 St. John’s vs. #78 St. Joseph’s – SIgnificant edge BE (Note: BE #7 is better A10 #4)
#71 Providence vs. #105 St. Bonaventure – Okay, this is starting to get out of hand (Note: BE #8 is even with A10 #6)
#133 Seton Hall vs. #112 La Salle – Significant edge to A10 (You win this one, A10!)
#139 DePaul vs. #142 George Mason – Even (Victory was short-lived, I suppose)

So, the BIg East is clearly better than the A10.  Can we stop this foolishness?  I can’t believe I even had to do a post to prove this…