Trevor Releford is absolutely necessary to Alabama’s offense (Mark Almond/The Birmingham News)
A young Xavier squad heads into their first road game of the season, up against a decent opponent picked to finish 6th in the SEC. They encounter a good defense and some offensive talent but an over-reliance on a talented scoring point guard. Sound familiar? Let’s wade in!
In terms of overall efficiency adjusted for strength of schedule, these two teams are practically the same, ranked 55th (Xavier) and 58th (Alabama) in Pythagorean winning percentage, the predictor for a team’s probability of succeeding in future games. Their offenses aren’t that great in adjusted efficiency (Xavier scoring 1.063 points per possession against the perfectly average team and Alabama scoring 1.070 points per possession, ranked 117th and 103rd respectively). The defenses, however, are both really good, Xavier allowing only 0.948 points per possession (29th) and Alabama allowing 0.955 PPP (36th). Their defensive tempos are fairly similar, but Alabama takes a little bit longer on offense than Xavier. It’s pretty clear that statistically it’s a wash, with Alabama getting the advantage for being the home team. As we will discover, though, their stories are much different as to how those overarching averages are reached.
After their loss to Duke in the NIT Season Tip-Off, Kieran Darcy of ESPN said, “Alabama isn’t a good offensive team to begin with. But if Releford doesn’t score, the Crimson Tide won’t win many games.” So let’s talk about senior point guard Trevor Releford. If you want to get an idea of how important he is to this team, think of Xavier without Semaj. And no, don’t reference the UC game; that’s cheating. Think last ten minutes of the Iowa game. Yep, he’s that damn important. And I’m a little sorry for making you remember the Iowa game again. Releford is known to be a really good ballhandler involved in 25.5% of Alabama’s possessions, while shooting a good 38.5% from outside the arc and an excellent 58.2% from inside. And that interior shooting percentage happens when 6’0″ is quite generous height-wise for him. He is okay at getting to the line, but when he gets there, he’s money, having missed only two free throws the entire season (29-31). Maybe Xavier’s #2-in-the-nation free-throw defense will put a stop to that!
Essentially, Trevor Releford (to distinguish from his brother Travis over at Kansas) shoots well from the outside and takes about half his shots from out there. Only one other player (junior wing Levi Randolph, 37%) can actually qualify as “good” so far from three-point range on a team ranked 234th in three-point percentage, so it’s no surprise that Releford has made one-third of their threes.
What Releford’s outside shooting does though is forces defenders to challenge him, opening up driving lanes for the little man where he can make plays like Semaj. Unlike Semaj and his solid 24.4% assist rate, though, Releford finishes more of those plays himself, which is fair when you are shooting 58% inside, but his good-for-a-shooting-guard-yet-team-best 18.0% assist rate does reflect a team-wide tendency: Alabama ranks 304th in A/FGM at 44.3%. Rush The Court writer Greg Mitchell sums up Alabama’s problems with ball-sharing and three-point shooting: “The problem for Alabama is that the only player on their team who has proven he can do both effectively over the long term is Trevor Releford. Playing him off the ball would create more space for Retin Obasohan’s slashing and Nick Jacobs’ hook shots. But the Tide need Releford to handle the ball and run the offense.”
Since Mitchell mentioned him, let’s move on to Obasohan real quick. He is much improved in his sophomore campaign (As a freshman, he wasn’t necessarily bad, but he wasn’t consistently good either). As a slashing 6’1″ guard, Obasohan is solid at finishing at the rim (50% on 2-pointers), but where he really shines is his FT rate: 91.2%. That means he has almost as many FT attempts as FG attempts, which is just absurd when you realize it is not a small sample size a la Jalen Reynolds. Obviously, Releford’s shooting helps create space for Obasohan, but like Mitchell mentioned, you want someone other than the primary ballhandler to spot up behind the line and open up gaps (preferably on the other side of the court). Luckily for the Tide, Randolph has been doing that this season, and fellow junior wing Rodney Cooper is okay behind the line, but that’s it. On the interior balancing out the perimeter shooting and slashing stands Jacobs, a hefty (245 pounds) 6’8″ forward with a alright shooting touch and decent rebounding ability.
Some defensive matchup musings:
– Dee and Randolph will probably draw the assignment against Releford, as they are the two best perimeter defenders on the team and they don’t give up size in this matchup.
– Semaj is then freed up to guard Obasohan or switch out to the taller Randolph (6’5″) or Cooper (6’6″) when Xavier runs three-guard lineups. Even then, though, Myles might be better suited to guard these lower-usage players, leaving Semaj to handle Obasohan, the only potential playmaker besides Releford.
– Jacobs seems like the perfect defensive matchup for Philmore.
Now, let’s break down the defense; that’s what Alabama is actually good at. First off, let’s take time for some individual recognition. Obasohan is one of those rare players who is both a good shot blocker and ball thief, with a block rate ranked 229th and a steal rate ranked 10th. He’s a 6’1″ guard, so the block rate might actually be crazier all the same. Releford also is a good ball hawk, ranking 107th on steals. Reserve junior wing Algie Kay isn’t far behind them on steal rate, coming in at 260th. And then down low, Jacobs ranks as a solid shot blocker in his own right. Given all of this on the individual level, it should come as no surprise that the team as a whole ranks 39th on block percentage and 28th on steal percentage. Xavier will have to be careful with the ball and smart with their shot selection, two things that they haven’t been this season.
However, if Xavier doesn’t get the ball stolen from them before getting inside the arc and doesn’t get their shot slapped back in their face once they get there (no guarantees, remember!), they actually have a decent shot of converting on two-point attempts. Despite a top 50 block rate, Alabama still ranks only 149th on two-point defense. On three-point defense, however, they come in at an impressive 6th, holding opponents to 25.7% from the perimeter.
Where are they bad defensively?
– I already mentioned two-point defense being mediocre when they do not physically touch the shot.
– They are also medicore at keeping opponents off the line. Semaj should be able to take advantage of this by drawing a lot of fouls.
– Like UC, they are much better at offensive rebounding than defensive rebounding. At 251st, they allow opponents to grab their own misses 34.1% of the time. In a couple games, Xavier has exhibited the intensity and toughness to take advantage of this.
The story these statistics seem to paint is one where opponents succeed by breaking the perimeter pressure and getting points by drawing fouls instead of blocks or finding opportunities for open shots or layups against a team overplaying the attempted block. And if the first shot misses? Crash the offensive glass.
In sum, Alabama is a limited offensive team (like Xavier might be if the ball movement and confident shooting of the UC game doesn’t resemble a future norm), where one player has to both make plays and take the shots himself, with some minor support from a couple others. The Tide compensate for this on defense, where they pressure the ball and challenge shots, especially on the perimeter, though they seem to overcompensate inside the arc, where their inclination to block shots seems to lead to some good looks or open offensive boards. They are in a vulnerable position, though, having lost half their games in a tough schedule where they haven’t been able to beat any team in the top 100. An up-and-down Xavier squad in their first road game of the season could be a good opportunity for the Crimson Tide team that badly needs respectable wins and just wins in general. Xavier’s long lay-off makes me nervous too, as Alabama recently sharpened their abilities against a really good Wichita State team while the Musketeers lay fallow.
I have to give the edge to the home team, considering the circumstances and the statistical evidence. It will probably be an ugly lower scoring, defensive affair, as both teams’ defenses are much better than their offenses, and Xavier ranks 210th in tempo while Alabama is much slower at 329th.
Alabama 58 Xavier 53
Of course, I am trying to split the difference between the UC game and the previous games that Xavier played. While this is a difficult task in itself, it might not even be the right approach. Maybe a Xavier squad with a strong team identity led by a super-talented star has emerged, one that will still have its pitfalls but in the long run be establishing itself as a strong, competitive team. This game will go some of the way toward deciding whether that possibility holds any weight, though a win or a loss will not indicate anything conclusive one way or another at this point in the season.
From Staak to Mack 