Notes from Skip Prosser Classic

Dee Davis (7 points, 7 assists, 3 turnovers) did a great job running the offense in this double-digit win! (Bloguin.com)

Here are my thoughts written down as the game progressed.  I feel it gives somewhat of a story of the game as it progressed.  Sadly, I often didn’t note the time of each incident, but often you can make a good guess, based off what point in the half it is:

Semaj pass into Stainbrook. Stain back out to Dee for the 3. Love running the offense through Stain

Great drive by Martin to the rim off the screen at the top of the arc. If he has an open lane (especially on the right), it’s nice to see him take it. He has good body control and can finish well.  If you don’t force him to change hands on a drive (You know, actually challenge his abilities as a ballhandler), you’ll regret it.

Stain gets inbounds, fumbles a little, so he passes back out to Semaj. Stain still has good position, so Semaj immediately gets it back in. Stain scores.  Smart play by Semaj.

Christon at the front of the break is deadly

Wake is knocking down 3s…Often contested, not always

–          Philmore has to watch Coron Williams outside…takes a couple threes a game. Inside, it’s a good matchup for him of similar bodies

Good energy by JMart for offensive rebound off Philmore’s miss. Leads to Farr 3!

Farr’s hands off aren’t that great when receiving a quick pass from another big.

Nice pull-up jumper by Semaj. Good option for him

Stain with the pull-up floater in the lane? Huh?  Okay, it went in…won’t object

Good rebounding so far for X

Nice work in the post, Farr, with the hook shot

Come on, X, don’t allow the lane to the basket.  It’s been a problem so far.

Stain posting up does a great pass over his defender for the score.  This is pretty ordinary for him.

Dee driving into lane in semi-transition, bad kick-out pass to Semaj

Xavier defense against a mediocre offense has been underwhelming

Another lane allowed to the basket for the Wake layup

Stain tips in his own miss lol

Nice break of Wake’s three-quarter trap

Over-helping on drive leaves open big on left side of rim. Reynolds needed to foul him to prevent the lay-in after the easy pass

Another bad pass, this time by Stain trying to kick out to Martin. Over-and-back call

9:44, 1-3-1 zone by Xavier.  Coron Williams (good three-point shooter) on bench, but Miller-McIntyre nails corner 3

Another foul by Reynolds (over-the-back). The first one was a good foul, this was not

Second bad 3 by Martin. What the hell?

Dee draws the charge!

Some high passes to break the press where X player has to jump to corral them. Risky…

Martin tries another 3 off nice Dee drive-and-kick.  This one was at least reasonably close

Another open look by Martin, miss. *sigh*

Christon:  Pass-fake and then nails the 3; shot clock was running low.

Beautiful pass by Dee to Philmore, but Phil gets blocked on reverse layup. Really good block.

Three straight steals!

Nasty pass into Stain by Christon after he considers the 3! This is why he is projected as an NBA point guard

Multiple shots missed, multiple offensive rebounds. Nice to see Christon taking an open 3, but he was slow on the shot. Better when he’s instinctive

Myles steal, pass ahead to Semaj, leads to an and-1 layup!

Good D on the Devin Thomas’ drive, shot attempt no good

Reverse layup by Myles missed, offensive rebound by Philmore

Dee does nice stutter-step to go in for layup but misses. Farr tips three times to finally make it

Transition, Christon drives baseline for reverse.  Just beautiful.

Stain posts up nicely, pretty agile for his size.  Misses shot but gets foul

Randolph:  Drive, nice spin, hits floater after it bounces around the rim a lot

Myles twisted his ankle? Hope it’s just that.  Might be the knee fresh off surgery…

Last field goal was at the 9:30 mark by Wake…Plus, only 3 FTs since then as we head toward halftime.

Last offensive possession:  Great motion offense, Dee and Semaj controlling the ball, Semaj throws pass into Farr for easy lay-in

HALFTIME! 42-27

At Half:  Held Wake to 19% offensive rebounding while getting 47% themselves.  Clearly Wake’s statistics on the glass were inflated by a weak schedule

Semaj:  12pts (5-7, 1-2, 1-1), 3 assists, 1 rebound, 2 steals, 1 block, 0 turnovers

Stain:  10pts (5-7, 0-0, 0-2), 6 rebounds (2 offensive), 2 assists, 1 steal

Farr:  11 points (5-8, 1-3), 6 rebounds (2 offensive), 1 block

Dee:  3 points (1-2, 1-1, 0-0), 5 assists, 2 turnovers, 2 rebounds, 1 steal

Turnovers:  Wake 10, Xavier 5

 

Second half begins!

Martin doesn’t get the foul on his drive, Stain loses the rebound

Martin hits the corner 3! Thank God…Announcers are right that it was a quick pass that was perfectly in Martin’s rhythm.  I imagine Mack told him n halftime to continue not hesitating to shoot

Wake has a 2-3 zone, announcers observed that they’re not built for it in terms of length and athleticism

Working ball through Stain, back to Dee just inside the top of the arc, Dee with the stepback mid-range jumper.  Mid-range jumpers can kill any zone, especially one without the proper personnel

Announcers giving the deserved credit to Stain for his defense on Thomas.  It’s been excellent.

Fade-away bank shot out of the post by Thomas over Stain. Had to fade to stand a reasonable chance.

Great pass by Dee into Stain, Stain fouled on shot

Good close-out by Martin, denied the drive

Fantastic on-the-dribble pass by Martin into Philmore for the and-1!

Stepback 3 by Dee doesn’t go after they couldn’t get other things to work

Farr has nice work in the post for the left-handed hook

Philmore at the line for Flagrant 1 free throws after an inadvertent elbow on Farr’s shot attempt (that actually went anyway, so thanks for the freebie, Wake)

Bad reverse layup attempt by Philmore

Crazy rebound battle, Xavier player with the ball ends up on ground and passes off to Dee. Dee drives all the way for layup attempt, draws foul. [EDIT:  This would be the last time Xavier scored for 5 ½ minutes]

Missed 3 by Myles, long rebound, transition bucket for Wake

Missed alley-oop by Reynolds from Stain

Overplaying the perimeter by Xavier allows the drive in for the layup by Wake

Great pass into Farr, but he gets blocked on the shot attempt

From a 22-point lead, it’s down to 14. 5 minutes without a FG. Stain just got subbed back in

Good baseline drive by Christon, pass out to Martin on other side for corner 3 that didn’t go.  Really nice play though

Nice steal in passing lane by Farr, really sloppy transition play by Martin.  First, he almost loses the dribble, then he throws a risky pass into the post and it gets stolen

Pull-up jumper by Wake (in my opinion, a low-percentage shot that just happened to go)…Now it is down to a 12-point game

Stain goes to work!  Staight-forward backdown in the post for the lay-in. First FG in a long time by Xavier

Tough drive for the contested lay-in by Miller-McIntyre. Have to give credit to him for just being a good player completing a good play

Dee looks at 3, draws defender, throws ball in to Stain for the and-1

Great drive to the lane by Christon after making defense move on a pass fake. Misses shot, but Stain gets rebound and puts it in

Stain picks up 4^th foul, heads to bench, *possibly* for last time [EDIT:  Ended up being the last time]

Christon has smooth drive into the lane but gets blocked on underhanded layup

Really tough, persistent work by Philmore for offensive rebound.  Great hustle

Martin with the offensive rebound, tied up and draws foul.  Misses 1-and-1.

Christon:  0-5 in second half, with 1 assist, 3 rebounds, 1 block

Kamall Richards and Erik Stenger sighting with 55.0 seconds to go

9 points in the last 12:21 after Dee made two free throws. Scoring drought from 12:21 to 6:57 (5:24 duration)

–          Stain scored 7 of those when he came back in (left at 11:17, came back at 7:43), between 6:57 and 5:16. Left at 4:50 after his 4^th foul

–          The other two points?  Brandon Randolph’s two free throws with 45 seconds to go.

Quick Take: Xavier 68 Wake Forest 53

Skip Prosser is smiling at his former team’s win. Which team?! (Nils M. Solsvik, Jr.)

What a game!  Xavier was favored over Wake Forest by 7 or 8 by Vegas and by 7 by Kenpom, and they won by 15.  That’s pretty satisfying.  Now, they were up 22 in the second half, so that was disappointing, but still, a good win.  More to come tomorrow (after I overcome my trip to a bar after the game), but here are some points for now:

–          Stain is The Truth.  Seriously, the Xavier offense is so dependent on him.  Xavier started a scoring drought at the 12:21 mark, not long before he left for an a few straight minutes.  He came back to score seven points in a minute and a half before leaving again after his fourth foul

–          Semaj proved his preseason accolades in the first half.  He missed some shots in the second half that he often makes, much like the team at large, but still a good game with some great defense (2 steals, 2 blocks, great on-ball defense).

–          Dee really controlled this team, finishing with seven assists!

That’s all for now, but more will follow tomorrow afternoon or evening!  As a final note, Xavier finishes the non-conference schedule at a respectable 10-3.

The Skip Prosser Classic

Hopefully this game can honor such a great man for the sport! (Camel City Dispatch)

Another week gone by, another long layover between Xavier games.  From here on out, though, the games start coming quickly, beginning with the nonconference finale, where the Musketeers will face the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Cintas Center as part of the Skip Prosser Classic.  There are some good articles about the great man behind the series – Gregg Doyel’s take and the preview from the Cincinnati Enquirer are good reads – but I would like to focus on this specific matchup.

Where are they coming from?

There were serious questions about how much one could draw from the Crosstown Blowout (as impressive as it was), considering the trip to Atlantis wasn’t exactly good and the home wins over Kenpom #203 Bowling Green and #186 Evansville were too close for comfort.  Many of those concerns were alleviated after a road win over a decent (#59) Alabama team, one which tested the team’s resolve up against a double-digit deficit early in the second half.  The Atlantis Implosion is looking more and more like an anomaly that occurred because of this new team first encountering adversity.  They have since learned from that experience, and their talent is beginning to show against some solid opponents.  Ranked #45 by Kenpom and riding a four-game win streak, the Musketeers are starting to look really good and are hoping to finish the non-conference portion of the schedule on a good note at a respectable 10-3.

Wake Forest is also riding a four-game win streak, though their slate was a little less impressive:  #293 Tulane, #70 Richmond (in overtime), #105 St. Bonaventure, and #310 UNC-Greensboro, all at home.  The Demon Deacons (#84) have some real challenges ahead of them:  Xavier on the road, #19 UNC at home, and #23 Virginia and #9 Pittsburgh on the road, and they’ll have to start answering questions against their first quality competition after their own underwhelming performance in Atlantis.  Robert Reinhard over at SB Nation’s Blogger So Dear isn’t too optimistic:  “It’s quite possible I could have skipped that entire analysis and just pointed out that Wake Forest is playing a road game and Jeff Bzdelik is the coach. Wake Forest has won just three road games under Jeff Bzdelik, and one of those was against High Point.”  I definitely sympathize with him on Bzdelik; still a mind-boggling hire, only explainable by the AD’s friendship with the former leader of some mediocre Colorado teams.

How do they match up?

Both rely more on their defense (Xavier ranked #36 and Wake ranked #47), but Xavier’s offense (#69) is distinctly better than Wake’s (#161).  Xavier is pretty good on the defensive boards, but Wake Forest has been one of the best in the nation at holding teams to one shot per possession, although one should remember that these numbers are not adjusted for strength of schedule.  Since the teams are practically equal on the offensive glass, Xavier has a challenge in front of them.  They must show some of the same toughness and tenacity as they have in the past two games in order to win this battle on the glass, especially since Wake holds its opponents to a low percentage on their shots.

Another stat worth considering is FT rate.  The Demon Deacons are pretty awful when they get to the line, but they are still good at getting there in the first place, and Xavier isn’t good at preventing that.  Do Xavier fans really want to hope that their stellar free-throw defense holds up for another game?

Bzdelik also observed to the Winstom-Salem Journal that some of the team’s key players actually mirror each other.  He says, “Stainbrook is a lefty, and he’s physical, rugged and tough. He plays with passion, similar to a player we have. They’ve got a guy in Christon who is a one-man fast break, similar to a guy we have. They’ve got a guy [Myles Davis] who can shoot it very, very well, very similar to a guy we have.  He’s talking about the following players:

Devin Thomas – 11.8 ppg / 9.8 rpg (54.9% Effective FG Pct., 53.9% FT Rate, 3.4% Block Pct.)

Codi Miller-McIntye – Leading scorer, 17.5 ppg (ORtg 114.6, 25.2% Possessions, 24.8% Assist Rate)

Coron Williams – 43% from 3 (ORtg 131.9, 15.7% Poss., 3.7% TO Rate)

He’s right; it is like a mirror!  Frankly, though, it’s a blurry mirror overall that Xavier is looking into, and there isn’t enough glass cleaner (That’s right, I’m sticking with the mirror analogy) to disguise the fact that Xavier simply is a better team than Wake Forest.  Their defense is a notch above, and their offense is much better and on the rise as Christon’s stardom and the rest of the team’s notable contributions blend together more and more (1.10 and 1.20 points per possession in the last two games against two good defensive teams).  At Wake, I might still pick Xavier, but at home, this should be theirs for the taking, preferably by double digits.

Around the Conference

The Carrier Dome game between #8 Villanova and #2 Syracuse in the early afternoon is the headline game in college basketball tomorrow, except for maybe the Battle of the Bluegrass between Louisville and Kentucky.  It would be a huge win for Villanova, setting them up for 1-seed discussion throughout the conference schedule, and it would be fantastic for the Big East as a whole through the boost to conference prestige (Sorry, Villanova, we have to live vicariously through you to a degree).  Conference wins over the Wildcats would also be further augmented, as one can expect them to drop a couple games in the Big East schedule.  It will be interesting to see what happens when Syracuse has the ball.  They bring the #9 offense in the nation in adjusted efficiency, but they’ll be up against the #2 defense!  Who will blink first?  Their matchup on the other side of the court is also about even, just not elite (though not to be snobby, as Xavier can’t even claim a #28 defense or a #35 offense).

The other game to watch for tomorrow is the Providence game at #23 Massachusetts.  This is a really tough match-up for the Friars, especially with all they have lost to injury or suspension, but it would be a fantastic win over one of the hotter teams in the country.  Do I think Providence will win?  No, if I was betting even money.  But while the game is still uncertain, the matchup remains compelling, because Providence does have some serious talent still healthy and eligible (apparently a tough combo) in Bryce Cotton, LaDontae Henton, and Tyler Harris.